Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
223 markets · page 1 of 10
Yes ≈ 21% chance
The market sees a Trump visit to Iran before 2027 as virtually impossible, given active military hostilities, no diplomatic relations, and no travel plans—despite a recent halt in US strikes and a planned Netanyahu meeting that focus on Israel's role, not direct US-Iran engagement.
Yes ≈ 3% chance
The field is overwhelmingly concentrated on Mojtaba Khamenei following the death of his father, but the escalating US-Iran war (PBS, Jul 9) introduces a risk of regime disruption that could open the race to alternative figures or a power vacuum.
24 outcomes
3 outcomes
Yes ≈ 80% chance
The market sees only a 16% chance of Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by August 31, reflecting a consensus that the current geopolitical disruptions—including US-Iran tensions and a recent tanker seizure—will persist beyond that deadline, despite a slight uptick in odds over the past week.
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Despite Reza Pahlavi's sustained Western advocacy, the 93% No odds reflect the near-impossibility of his physically entering Iran while the Islamic Republic remains in power and closed to him, a reality reinforced by the divisive reception of his recent European tour.
Yes ≈ 8% chance
3 outcomes
Yes ≈ 5% chance
The market is pricing a near-certain ceasefire continuation, but the real story is that this high confidence rests on a fragile, secret 10-day truce proposal submitted by Iran under heavy US military pressure, not on a durable bilateral agreement.
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Reza Pahlavi's odds remain near zero because the Islamic Republic shows no sign of collapse, and his recent public appearances have generated more ridicule than momentum.
Yes ≈ 4% chance
2 outcomes
The market is overwhelmingly concentrated on 'No' at 99%, driven by the UK government's explicit denial that Iran can strike London, despite Iran's recent missile attack on Diego Garcia at a similar range. The key non-obvious read is that the attack on Diego Garcia, while demonstrating range, has not shifted the official threat assessment, keeping the probability of a London strike extremely low.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Despite the near-zero odds, the real story is that multiple independent indicators—tanker crossings, seizure incidents, and expert timelines—all point to a prolonged disruption that makes a return to the IMF's 60-call threshold within days virtually impossible.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
The market prices a Trump visit to Iran as virtually impossible, reflecting the absence of any diplomatic framework, security clearance, or public indication that such a trip is even being considered with just days left before the deadline.
Yes ≈ 1% chance
The odds have surged on Iran's secret 10-day ceasefire proposal and the absence of major violations, but the underlying US-Iran military confrontation continues, making the ceasefire fragile.
Yes ≈ 89% chance