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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 347 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 4153 US elections 3052 Foreign politics 534 Political Leader Tenure 391 Future US Presidents 255 US Political Timelines 211 Leader Tenure Predictions 128 US Political Future 116 Presidential Candidacy 80 US Political Milestones ✨ 35 Person of the Year Awards 17 Sports & Political Leadership 9

11,629 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 347 of 417

Kalshi

Open

Democrats, 21+ pts

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

▲ 1pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…345346347348349…417Next ›

Will Trump deploy federal law enforcement to crack down on protests by "radical left lunatics" by X date?

The field is heavily concentrated on the whole-term option (56%), reflecting a market belief that a crackdown is likely at some point during Trump's presidency, but the near-term options (first year, first month, etc.) are near zero, indicating skepticism about an imminent event. The biggest recent shift likely came from the May 2026 ICE crackdown on L.A. protests, where Marines were authorized to use force as a last resort (Los Angeles Times, May 6), which reinforced the whole-term probability without triggering a near-term spike.

January 20, 2029 (Whole term)56¢

5 outcomes

Ɱ74.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

FL-16 Republican Primary Winner

Sydney Gruters98¢

9 outcomes

$3.9K Vol▼ 2pts23d

Kalshi

Open

Democrats, 23+ pts

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

▲ 1pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump have 3 or more Chiefs of Staff at the White House during his term?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ189 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Guinea-Bissau Constitutional Referendum

Passes92¢

4 outcomes

$1.6K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Democrats, 25+ pts

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

▲ 1pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Which jurisdictions will recognise same-sex marriages as of 1 January 2027?

South Africa95¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ3.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Oldenburg Mayoral Election Winner

Other50¢

24 outcomes

$23 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Democrats, 27+ pts

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

$214 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Joe Biden run for a second non-consecutive presidential term in 2028?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ11.3K Vol▲ 0pts6y

Polymarket

Open

Salzgitter Mayoral Election Winner

Frank Klingebiel54¢

21 outcomes

$140 Vol▼ 1pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Democrats, 29+ pts

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump pardon himself over the course of his second term?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ5.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Tuva Gubernatorial Election Winner

Vladislav Khovalyg96¢

32 outcomes

$601 Vol▲ 1pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Democrats, 31+ pts

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will non-wildfire US forest cover loss (in Mha) be higher in Trump's second term (2025-2028) than during Biden's term?

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ5 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Ulyanovsk Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner

Alexey Russkikh97¢

31 outcomes

$437 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Democrats, 33+ pts

Yes39¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

▼ 1pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Michelle Obama ever become the President of the USA?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ7.4K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Sachsen-Anhalt Parliamentary Elections: 3rd Place

The Left86¢

34 outcomes

$238 Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Democrats, 35+ pts

Yes32¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

▼ 1pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the democrats win the 2026 Alabama governor election?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Penza Oblast Gubernatorial Election Winner

Oleg Melnichenko95¢

32 outcomes

$669 Vol▲ 1pts1mo