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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3846 US elections 2715 President ✨ 763 Foreign politics 415 Republican ✨ 328 Future US Presidents 217 US Political Timelines 202 Iran ✨ 127 Leader Tenure Predictions 115 Political ✨ 83 Presidential Candidacy 73 Person of the Year Awards 12

90 markets · page 4 of 4

Manifold· Play

Open

2030 – 5. AI-driven job loss will be one of the most widely discussed political and social issues.

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ3.6K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will prediction markets be formally integrated into a government's political system before 2040? 📜🏛️⚖️📊

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ955 Vol▲ 0pts13y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will abortion be a big political issue in the US in 2028?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will mass-movement political activism for AI regulation (such as "PauseAI") get $10m+ from EA funders before 2030?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ261 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Nobel Peace Prize Winner in 2026 hold political office at the time of the award?

Yes23¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ522 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term?

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk blame the end of Twitter on the advertisers who left for reasons he deems political?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ337 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion, according to funding?

Yes84¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Juvenile Life Without Parole (JLWOP) sentencing become a major political priority for either party before 2030?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ216 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Consider not donating under $100 to political..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ353 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be widespread political unrest in the US in the summer of 2026 similar to summer of 2020?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Jake Paul run for and win any political office before EOY 2028?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ251 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Simulating the rest of the political disagr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ125 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Open

Musk child holds elected political office by mid 2034

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ278 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Richard Hanania (political writer) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ2.5K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk try to use an AI model to sway people towards a political ideology before 2031?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ424 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

The US political system will break down as badly as Jan 6 again before 2040

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ855 Vol▲ 0pts14y

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2028, will geoengineering be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts1y