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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 5 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3809 US elections 2676 Foreign politics 402 Political Leader Tenure 338 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 71 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

251 markets · page 5 of 11

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Greg Abbott be elected president of the United States in 2028?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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‹ Prev1…34567…11Next ›

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Will Donald Trump be the first US President to live in exile?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ807 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will Lex Fridman interview the next US President by 2029?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ605 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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US President states on video that COVID likely escaped from WIV, any time through 2026

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

Ɱ92 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will any big tech ex-employee become President of the US before 2040?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ518 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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Will there be another Impeachment of a US President before James Cameron's Avatar 4 comes out?

Yes70¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Sitting US president visits Cuban Government Leaders in Cuba before 2034

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ329 Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Conditional on the next US President being Republican, will China invade Taiwan during the next presidential term?

The market's low 23% Yes probability suggests traders believe that even with a Republican president, China will not launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan, likely due to a combination of US deterrence, regional stability signals, and China's preference for gradual pressure.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will the next US president lift the embargo on Cuba?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Will a son of Donald Trump become President of the USA?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ431 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Gavin Newsom become president in 2028?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ4.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Marco Rubio run for President?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ374 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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A sitting US President becomes a parent while in office by mid 2036

The recent birth of a child to Vice President JD Vance has dramatically shifted the conversation around presidential parenthood, but the market remains skeptical because the sitting president is not the one becoming a parent and the timeframe extends to 2036, making the event highly contingent on future presidencies.

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ281 Vol▲ 0pts10y

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Will Donald Trump be the first US President to live in exile? [clarified, by 2030 Halloween]

Despite Trump's ongoing political engagement and lack of any exile precedent, the market assigns a 16% chance he becomes the first US president to live in exile by 2030, reflecting residual tail risk from legal or political upheaval.

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ105 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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If Elon Musk runs for US president before 2033, will they win?

Musk's 13% chance reflects not his ambition but the drag from foreign endorsements and legal troubles, though his wealth keeps a narrow path open.

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ930 Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Will a US president explicitly apologize for the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki by 2040?

The nearly even odds mask a stark reality: no US president has ever apologized for the atomic bombings, and the fierce backlash against Obama's mere visit (critics called him a 'lunatic') shows the political cost, while Trump's 2026 Pearl Harbor joke suggests the current administration is hostile to such a gesture. The long horizon to 2040 leaves room for generational change, but the historical precedent and domestic polarization make a full apology a long shot.

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ397 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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JD Vance: Second Contract Kill?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ482 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will the 48th President of the United States be a member of the Democratic party?

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

Ɱ804 Vol▲ 0pts10y

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Will an active US President or Vice President be booed off a stage by the end of 2029?

Recent booing incidents involving Vice President JD Vance have raised the odds, but the bar for 'booed off a stage' is high — no sitting President or VP has been forced to leave early in modern history.

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ111 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will the US President of the 2024-2028 term die while being the President?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ211 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Next non-Republican US President wins Nobel Peace Prize?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ111 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will JD Vance become President of the US before November 1, 2028?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ35.7K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will the gop ticket in 2028 be Jd Vance for President, Marco Rubio for vice president?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ165 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will JD Vance, Marco Rubio OR Gavin Newsom win the 2028 presidential election?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y