Politics prediction markets
Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
5,309 markets · page 85 of 222
Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
5,309 markets · page 85 of 222
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 91% chance
Yes ≈ 72% chance
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 42% chance
9 outcomes
Yes ≈ 98% chance
Yes ≈ 0% chance
The field is highly concentrated at the top, with Vance, Newsom, and Shapiro collectively commanding 85% of the probability, but the recent US-Iran deal (NBC News, Jun 18) has shifted focus to foreign policy, potentially boosting candidates with national security credentials while sidelining others.
111 outcomes
Yes ≈ 90% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 81% chance