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Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

The market's 28% Yes reflects deep skepticism that any AI model will achieve a 1520 Arena Score by September 2026, likely because current top scores are far below that threshold and the pace of improvement, as indicated by the Stanford report on China's catch-up, does not suggest a sudden leap.

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$22.8K Vol 4pts2mo

Tech prediction markets

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 60%

Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?

Will there be a premier league game broadcasted with AI commentators by 2027?

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026

Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2028?

Will an AI model using neuralese recurrence be first released to the public before 2027? — Before 2027

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? — 45%+

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1650 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1650 score

Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?

Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1700 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1700 score

Will AI-generated art win a major, traditionally human-only art competition by 2030?

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1540 score

Will OpenAI Reach $100B in total profit by the end of 2027?

Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?

Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public? — Disney

Is the nature of AI risk completely misunderstood today with respect to the state of the art in 2030?

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 27, 2026?

Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public? — Hulu

Will any major Hollywood film released before 2027 be entirely AI-generated?

Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? — 55%+