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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 11 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2494 Tech Company Valuations 931 Big tech & chips 636 Space 496 Science 292 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

848 markets · page 11 of 36

Polymarket

Open

What will be the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season?

Paulette35¢

20 outcomes

$900 Vol▼ 6pts4mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 170

‹ Prev1…910111213…36Next ›

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$70.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be at least one peer-reviewed study correlating AI usage with increased mental illness by end of 2028?

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

Ɱ319 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Any psychedelic substance for medical use

The real story is that despite Trump's executive order in April 2026 to accelerate psychedelic access (Reuters, Apr 21), the FDA has not yet approved any psychedelic substance this year, and the market's 42% Yes reflects doubt that the agency will move fast enough before Jan 1, 2027.

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

$355K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any major science fiction short story markets lift their categorical ban on writing with LLMs by 2030?

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Ɱ28 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will Blue Origin land an uncrewed Blue Moon MK1 lander on the moon before SpaceX lands an uncrewed Starship? — Before 2030

Yes63¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

$89.8K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $2.14 by Dec 31? — Above $2.14

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$844 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the next Millennium problem be solved by an AI lab or a mathematics department?

AI lab80¢

2 outcomes

Ɱ10.7K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will the B200 compute per hour price be above $7.16 on Jul 31? — Above $7.16

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

$532 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will the A100 SXM4 compute per hour price be above $2.29 by Dec 31? — Above $2.29

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Japan have a general AI company with a valuation of $1 bil+ primarily doing research inside of its borders by 2028?

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

New York Times wins

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

$59K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ143 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will Google release Gemini 3.5 Pro before Aug 16, 2026? — Before Aug 16, 2026

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

$5.4K Vol▼ 5pts20d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an Indian science fiction film make a billion dollars at the global box office this decade?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $2.56 on Jul 31? — Above $2.56

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

$694 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be reports of an AI playing a significant role in biological gain-of-function research before 2030?

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

Ɱ569 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Kalshi

Open

Will the H200 compute per hour price be above $3.35 on Jul 31? — Above $3.35

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

$723 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

What's causing the mental health crisis among young people of the 2010s-2020s?

Social Media80¢

17 outcomes

Ɱ6.7K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.68 on Jul 31? — Above $0.68

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$869 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ4.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.53 on Jul 31? — Above $0.53

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Above 10 New World screwworm infestation cases in the United States during 2026

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$39.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo