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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 119 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2685 Tech Company Valuations 1009 Big tech & chips 682 Space 564 Science 361 Through 40 Software Engineering Trends 16 Elevator 16 Space Development 10 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,926 markets · page 119 of 122

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ26.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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‹ Prev1…117118119120121122Next ›

Open

Will the top model on LiveBench be Chinese on Jan 1st, 2028?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ22 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will AI be officially recognized as ‘AGI’ (Artificial General Intelligence) before the end of 2027?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ450 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open source Sora 2-level model before 2027?

Yes84¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ125 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?

Yes52¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ934 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will Meek Mill raise $10 million or more for an AI company by the end of 2026?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ74 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI agent able to transfer lossless corpus of someone's Roam Research notes [INCL PICTURES] to Obsidian by EOY2027?

Yes63¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

Ɱ53 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will the USG centralize frontier AI development in a single government project?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ142 Vol▲ 0pts14y

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3. China’s AI chip sector make significant strides, planting seeds for eventual decline on Nvidia [See full title!]

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ960 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Generative AI video used as false evidence in criminal trial by Dec 31, 2026?

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ277 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

The next time the AI Safety Clock moves, will it get further away from midnight?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ553 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

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A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2027

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ52 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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By EOY 2026, will iPhones have an AI that has access to and remembers everything you did on your phone?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ14.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will "AI safety undervalues founders" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ270 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Will a romantic relationship with an AI chatbot comprise 25% of all relationships within the USA before the year 2030?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2030?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Sarah Anderson et al prove Stability AI, Midjourney, and DeviantArt violated copyright laws in claim 1?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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When will OpenAI Announce AI Robots?

Not before 202770¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ5.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI: Will someone train a $10B model by 2030?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ261 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Bryan Caplan win his bet with Matthew Barnett on whether an AI can pass his exams in 2029?

Bryan Caplan's track record of winning bets on future predictions, combined with his early skepticism after testing ChatGPT in 2023, underpins the market's strong belief that AI will not pass his exams by 2029, making the 6% Yes price a reflection of Caplan's confidence rather than a neutral assessment of AI progress.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ70.8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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In early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ13.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Can AI grow corn?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ322 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will ai.com change hands by EOY?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ214 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Chat GPT 7 release before the end of 2027?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y