AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
2,904 markets · page 120 of 121
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
10 outcomes
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Yes ≈ 27% chance
21 outcomes
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
The market heavily discounts AI beating humans in all mathematical research by 2028 because three recent independent tests (June 2026) found AI models failing on rigorous, cheat-proof math problems that humans aced, showing the gap is still wide.
Yes ≈ 23% chance
The market is split nearly evenly, reflecting deep uncertainty about whether AI can achieve the subjective, emotional depth of great Romantic poetry, not just technical mimicry. The 45% Yes price suggests bettors see a plausible path via continued LLM advances, but the 55% No indicates skepticism that AI will attain the human touch required.
Yes ≈ 45% chance
Yes ≈ 80% chance
Yes ≈ 74% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 42% chance
8 outcomes
Yes ≈ 59% chance
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 27% chance