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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 121 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2685 Tech Company Valuations 1009 Big tech & chips 682 Space 564 Science 361 Through 40 Software Engineering Trends 16 Elevator 16 Space Development 10 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,926 markets · page 121 of 122

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI name another model Codex by the end of this year?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ4.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Some year after 2040.31¢

21 outcomes

Ɱ35.1K Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Will Mistral AI release a model named "le chaton fat" by EOY 2026

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ90 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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An LLM beats the Champion in FireRed BEFORE achieving it in Gen 1 Red?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ40 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2027?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ4.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

The market heavily discounts AI beating humans in all mathematical research by 2028 because three recent independent tests (June 2026) found AI models failing on rigorous, cheat-proof math problems that humans aced, showing the gap is still wide.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ71K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

The market is split nearly evenly, reflecting deep uncertainty about whether AI can achieve the subjective, emotional depth of great Romantic poetry, not just technical mimicry. The 45% Yes price suggests bettors see a plausible path via continued LLM advances, but the 55% No indicates skepticism that AI will attain the human touch required.

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Ɱ65.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ490 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ28.2K Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Yes24¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ806 Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Will Tensordyne’s Logarithmic AI Compute Matter in any way before 2028?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ40 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will AI seriously undermine nuclear deterrence before 2030?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ111 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Microsoft add Google Gemini as a selectable model in Excel Agent Mode by end of 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ98 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ27.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will the next Millennium Problem be solved by an AI?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts—

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What will be the net sentiment on AI benefits vs drawbacks in the latest YouGov US poll of 2026?

-20 to -10pp41¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ19.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will I be verbally speaking with a free AI in Ukrainian that can speak as slowly as I want and repeat itself exactly?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ21 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will OpenAI be acquired by 2040?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts13y

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In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

2025-202960¢

5 outcomes

Ɱ13.8K Vol▲ 0pts—

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AI reduces US tech workforce by 20% before 2029?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ260 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Yes53¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Ɱ73 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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5. Depreciation schedules become critically important, as debt plays growing role in the AI buildout [See full title!]

Yes70¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ465 Vol▲ 0pts5mo