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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 13 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2403 Tech Company Valuations 893 Big tech & chips 615 Space 462 Science 270 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

2,634 markets · page 13 of 110

Kalshi

Open

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Aug 1, 2026? — Before Aug 1, 2026

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$15K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…1112131415…110Next ›

Head-mounted display

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$13.4K Vol▲ 4pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

[MIT AI Risk Initiative] Will AI be blamed for ≥1,000 deaths by end of 2035?

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ955 Vol▲ 0pts9y

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 28, 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$2.2K Vol▼ 3pts2d

Kalshi

Open

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Nov 1, 2026? — Before Nov 1, 2026

Yes93¢

No7¢

Yes ≈ 93% chance

$10.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI wins FTL using screen input and mouse/keyboard before 2027

Yes25¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ779 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026?

The market overwhelmingly expects GPT-6 in 2026, but recent GPT-5.6 releases and scattered product launches suggest OpenAI is iterating incrementally rather than rushing a flagship, casting doubt on a definitive GPT-6 launch this year.

Yes89¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 89% chance

$80.8K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Anthropic release next Mythos-Class model before Oct 1, 2026? — Before Oct 1, 2026

Yes79¢

No21¢

Yes ≈ 79% chance

$15.9K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

With in the decade the Will Be ai based Influencer personality with at least one million subscribers on YouTube or X?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ70 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+

The market's low confidence (34%) in a Grok model hitting 50%+ on Humanity's Last Exam reflects the extreme difficulty of this benchmark, where even frontier models currently score below 10%, and no clear recent progress has been visible to shift expectations up.

Yes33¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$1.1K Vol▼ 7pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems? — Before August

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$4.2K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ5.7K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? — ↑ 1550

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

$44.5K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems? — Before December

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

$1.6K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI before the end of 2026?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? — Tablet

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$13.5K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems? — Before September

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$9.4K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2035?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Ɱ9.4K Vol▲ 0pts8y

Polymarket

Open

Third-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Other50¢

25 outcomes

$5.4K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems? — Before 2027

Yes71¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

$12.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Any frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ21 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

#3 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)

Company A50¢

32 outcomes

$2K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will xAI release Grok 5 before Oct 1, 2026? — Before October

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

$10.5K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Gary Marcus be accurate on at least 50% of his predictions on AI in 2029?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ148 Vol▲ 0pts3y