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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 168 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2345 Tech Company Valuations 872 Big tech & chips 600 Space 443 Science 263 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,433 markets · page 168 of 185

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Catholic Church take an unambiguous stand against AI within 2030?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ581 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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‹ Prev1…166167168169170…185Next ›

Open

GPT-6 Will be as or more dissapointing than GPT-5

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ613 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will Tesla merge with xAI by the end of 2027?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will "Guardian Angels: LLM Personalization for Prod..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ15 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will a more significant protest calling for a pause in AI than the pause letter by May 2029 (or an actual pause)?

Yes86¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 86% chance

Ɱ6.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will "AI companies should publish security assessments" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ142 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

AI time horizon of 20 hours by January 1st 2027?

Yes88¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Tesla stop making cars before 2035

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ226 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Open

Significant legal restrictions on AI in the USA by June 2027

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ973 Vol▲ 0pts10mo

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Open

Will a Chinese AI model rank in the top 10 on the LMArena Text leaderboard on August 1?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ406 Vol▲ 0pts8d

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Open

Will OpenAI disappear before 2034?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ2.8K Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Is Nick Cammarata right: LLM will be able to mechanistically audit own circuits and explain ghiblification in 2Y?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ179 Vol▲ 0pts8mo

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Fully automated Tesla charger for model Y in CA by mid 2027

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ221 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

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Anthropic signs compute deal with Meta by end of 2027?

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will China restrict the open release of frontier AI models above a capability threshold by end of 2026?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Tesla sells humanoid robots to the public in 2027

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ929 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will a laser lift a payload to space before 2055?

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ664 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will there be many more cyber vulnerabilities in 2027 due to AI?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ343 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will china have a top model in the next two years

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ339 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will any two top AI labs merge by EOY 2027?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ556 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will someone play Doom on Mars by the end of 2060?

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Ɱ105 Vol▲ 0pts—

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SOTA AI at EOY 2026 a reasoning model?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ317 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Google buys Nintendo in 2030?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ808 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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A family member of Elon Musk reaches Mars by end of 2040

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts14y