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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 169 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2336 Tech Company Valuations 867 Big tech & chips 600 Space 440 Science 259 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,433 markets · page 169 of 185

Manifold· Play

Open

Will we get Rouge AI before 2031?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ3.7K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

‹ Prev1…167168169170171…185Next ›

AI: Will someone train a $10B model by 2050?

Yes87¢

No14¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

Ɱ622 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will OpenAI and Anthropic’s S1s be a “massacre” for AI model companies?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ231 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

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Open

Will AI music generation have regressed between Halloween 2025 and 2026?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI "devops" #1: Will there be an AI that can onboard as a dev by 2028?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ370 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will NVIDIA release an RTX 5080 Ti?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ213 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will Microsoft Copilot inject ads into unrelated commits again?

Yes71¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

Ɱ140 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will "Prompt injection in Google Translate reveals ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ288 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

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Will "Comparative advantage & AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ100 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Open

OpenAI and Anthropic will both hit their 2026 revenue goals in 2026

Yes92¢

No8¢

Yes ≈ 92% chance

Ɱ4.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will a purely AI-based news agency exist by the year 2030?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ23.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Elon Musk spend a day in outer space?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

Ɱ554 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will "I am worried about near-term non-LLM AI devel..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ32 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Will Neuralink or similar tech be covered by a mainstream consumer available USA insurance plan by the end of 2035?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ695 Vol▲ 0pts9y

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In 2032, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts6y

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Will AI be able to read minds by 2030?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ911 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will an AR/VR product from Apple overtake iPhones 10 years after Vision Pro's launch?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ223 Vol▲ 0pts7y

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AI model training time decreases fourfold by mid-2027?

Yes59¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ210 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

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Will "Announcing: OpenAI's Alignment Research Blog" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Will Anthropic, before 2035, pause development for at least a year as a result of safety evaluations?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Alexander Huth (the neuroscientist) serve as an advisor for an AI company like OpenAI OR a neuro X AI company?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ17 Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Will ANY DeepSeek model cause or materially enable a catastrophic risk by 2027?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ9.4K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Open

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will a permanent research base be established in the deep sea before Mars?

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ269 Vol▲ 0pts14y