AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
3,310 markets · page 17 of 138
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 28% chance
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 68% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 55% chance
Yes ≈ 85% chance
8 outcomes
Despite Apple's recent site-wide price hike (Business Insider, Jun 26), the market prices a sub-$750 MacBook on apple.com by Black Friday at 93% – a level that seems to bet on an unprecedented new entry-level model or a rare direct discount, neither of which is confirmed by headlines.
Yes ≈ 93% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 3% chance
The market assigns a 63% probability that OpenAI will pay a tort claim exceeding $1 million before 2028, reflecting expectations that the company may face liability from its AI products, though no specific lawsuit has been reported. The recent Johnson & Johnson verdict and the integration of AI into personal injury litigation are seen as indicators of a legal environment that could produce such a claim.
Yes ≈ 63% chance
The market heavily doubts any AI model will hit a 1600 Chatbot Arena score by year-end, reflecting a belief that the leaderboard's scoring system is gamed and that progress is plateauing, not accelerating.
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 75% chance
Despite 85% odds, the absence of any Waymo-specific news in recent headlines suggests the market may be pricing in expectations rather than concrete launch announcements, leaving room for downside if obstacles emerge.
Yes ≈ 79% chance
Recent leaks consistently describe a portable speaker with camera, not a phone, driving the market to price in only a 7% chance of a phone announcement.
Yes ≈ 5% chance