Skip to content

Discover ✨Ask Topics Community 🎓Learn

PredictPal is a neutral, third-party aggregator of public prediction-market data. It is informational only — not affiliated with any platform, and it does not facilitate trading or hold funds. Market data is sourced from each platform’s public API and may be delayed.

Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

Compare odds across venues·Resolved markets·How it works·Support·Privacy Policy·Terms of Service

Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 18 | PredictPal · PredictPal

💻

Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 3102 Tech Company Valuations 1169 Big tech & chips 933 Space 784 Science 589 Through 40 Software Engineering Trends 16 Elevator 16 Space Development 12 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 11 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

3,310 markets · page 18 of 138

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Google Gemini model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+

Yes67¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

$3.3K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…1617181920…138Next ›

AI wins FTL using screen input and mouse/keyboard before 2027

Yes25¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ779 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? — Ring

Despite early speculation about a ring, recent reports consistently describe OpenAI's first device as a portable speaker with a camera, making a ring announcement highly unlikely before January 2027.

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$3.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will a Chinese company have one of the top 5 AI models by December 31? — #5

Chinese AI labs have rapidly closed the gap with U.S. leaders, and the recent surge in odds reflects a growing belief that cost advantages will push at least one Chinese model into the top 5 by year-end, despite the leaderboard still being dominated by American firms.

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

$17.7K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

When will LLMs be able to generate formal proof for sudoku solver?

202697¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ690 Vol6mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher? — 65%+

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$1.4K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? — Tablet

The market heavily doubts a tablet announcement, but the real story is that OpenAI's first device appears to be a portable speaker with a camera, not a tablet—making the 'No' odds a near-certainty based on recent reports.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$2.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?

The market heavily favors No because the current top model, Claude Fable 5, still appears far from 1580 and recent reports of a 'router problem' (Yellow.com, Jul 4) suggest its lead may be fragile, while challengers like GLM-5.2 are climbing but not closing the gap fast enough.

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

$48.6K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Hank Green's 2026 Bingo Card

World's First Trillionaire94¢

25 outcomes

Ɱ4.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

What kind of device will Jony Ive and OpenAI announce? — Watch

Despite multiple reports describing OpenAI's first device as a portable speaker with a camera, the market sees only a 6% chance it will be a Watch-like wearable, reflecting strong skepticism that Jony Ive's collaboration will produce a wrist-worn device.

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$3.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Waymo launch in Tampa, FL by December 31 2026?

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$1.1K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the OpenAI/Jony Ive device have a screen? — Before 2027

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$21.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

With in the decade the Will Be ai based Influencer personality with at least one million subscribers on YouTube or X?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ70 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

#3 AI Lab end of August? (Style Control On)

Company A50¢

32 outcomes

$2K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will 01A1 have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?

The market heavily doubts 01A1 will achieve a top-ranked AI model by 2027, likely because 01A1 is neither a known entity nor mentioned in recent AI news, while the only provided headline is about ovarian cancer research—completely unrelated to AI model rankings.

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$521 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Elon post "Claude" on X this week?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

$39 Vol7d

Kalshi

Open

Will Alibaba have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$11.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By what date will at least one state-of-the-art general-purpose AI system not be a reasoning model?

01.01.203072¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ249 Vol3y

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce a tablet in 2026? — Tablet

OpenAI's recent flurry of announcements—enterprise voice platforms, a super app, and an inference chip—all reinforce a software-first strategy, making a surprise tablet launch by year-end highly unlikely despite a slight uptick in odds over the past week.

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$13.5K Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Baidu have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?

Baidu's Ernie 5.1 ranks only 4th globally, and the market sees virtually no path to #1 by year-end 2027, despite strong AI cloud growth and cost improvements.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$11.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI IPO by 2030?

Yes94¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 94% chance

Ɱ5.7K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

How many cities will Waymo operate in by December 31?

16-1928¢

7 outcomes

$10.9K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will ByteDance have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?

ByteDance's AI model Seedance has already fallen from global rankings, and combined with regulatory headwinds and talent exodus, a leap to #1 before 2027 appears extremely improbable despite the company's resources.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$1.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Sam Altman cease to be CEO of OpenAI before the end of 2026?

The market heavily favors Altman staying through 2026 despite a barrage of legal, reputational, and governance shocks, suggesting investors see the board as stable and no viable replacement lined up.

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo