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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 192 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2461 Tech Company Valuations 917 Big tech & chips 629 Space 483 Science 289 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,627 markets · page 192 of 193

Manifold· Play

Open

Will much AI research be nationalized by 2027?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ27.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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‹ Prev1…190191192193Next ›

Will Microsoft discontinue Windows in favor of a Windows themed Linux distribution before 2041?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ395 Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Will the next Millennium Problem be solved by an AI?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Apple announce a foldable phone or tablet before 2027?

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ7.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will China successfully propulsively land a rocket first stage before 2027?

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

Ɱ2.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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What will be the net sentiment on AI benefits vs drawbacks in the latest YouGov US poll of 2026?

-20 to -10pp41¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ19.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will I be verbally speaking with a free AI in Ukrainian that can speak as slowly as I want and repeat itself exactly?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ21 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will OpenAI be acquired by 2040?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts13y

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In what year will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem?

2025-202960¢

5 outcomes

Ɱ13.8K Vol▲ 0pts—

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AI reduces US tech workforce by 20% before 2029?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ260 Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?

Yes53¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Ɱ73 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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Will Starship reach Mars by 2040?

Yes47¢

No53¢

Yes ≈ 47% chance

Ɱ1.7K Vol▲ 0pts13y

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5. Depreciation schedules become critically important, as debt plays growing role in the AI buildout [See full title!]

Yes70¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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AI honesty #2: by 2027 will we have a reasonable outer alignment procedure for training honest AI?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ465 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will there be significant protests calling for AI rights before 2030?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ7K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will Earth have a Space Elevator before 2045?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ727 Vol▲ 0pts18y

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Will Reflect Orbital send two satellites into space by 2030?

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Ɱ370 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will AI "love bots/virtual girlfriends" be good enough to reduce the % of "unwarranted male attention" by 50% by 2027?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ758 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Who are all the people who will be Time Person of The Year through 2028? [Unlinked Free Response]

The field is highly concentrated at the top, with three options at 100% and a long tail of sub-5% candidates, but the recent resolution of 'Architects of AI' to 100% has shifted the landscape by validating abstract group concepts and potentially opening the door for other collective entities.

Taylor Swift100¢

72 outcomes

Ɱ72.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will SpaceX (SPCX) close above its IPO price on July 31st?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ6.1K Vol▲ 0pts5d

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Who will be the next CEO of Apple?

John Ternus99¢

5 outcomes

Ɱ9K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will "Which side of the AI safety community are you in?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ475 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Anthropic highest valuation by end of December 2026

≥$0.8T100¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ8.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Which company will create AGI first?

Anthropic27¢

20 outcomes

Ɱ5.8K Vol▲ 0pts9y