Skip to content

Discover ✨Ask Topics Community 🎓Learn

PredictPal is a neutral, third-party aggregator of public prediction-market data. It is informational only — not affiliated with any platform, and it does not facilitate trading or hold funds. Market data is sourced from each platform’s public API and may be delayed.

Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

Compare odds across venues·Resolved markets·How it works·Support·Privacy Policy·Terms of Service

Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 190 | PredictPal · PredictPal

💻

Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2461 Tech Company Valuations 917 Big tech & chips 629 Space 483 Science 289 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,627 markets · page 190 of 193

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ675 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…188189190191192193Next ›

Will "Thoughts on the Pause AI protest" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ750 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Stoke Space fly to space before 2027?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ3.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "What SB 53, California’s new AI law, does" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ504 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?

The market expects a dramatic tenfold improvement from the current 3% automation rate (ZDNET, Jan 19) to 30-40%, but the wide spread of probabilities suggests deep uncertainty about whether the leap will be incremental or explosive.

30-40%26¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ33.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

In what year will Al achieve 85% or higher score on the Humanity’s Last Exam benchmark?

202755¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ6.4K Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any AI be legally recognized by any country's government as being a "person" deserving of some rights before 2029?

Yes35¢

No65¢

Yes ≈ 35% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2800?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ972 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the widespread blacklisting of AI art be sustained to 2028?

Yes70¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Which orbital booster will hold the reuse turnaround time record, as of EOY 2026?

Falcon 997¢

5 outcomes

Ɱ7.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a government mandate restrict access to an OpenAI or xAI model on security or safety grounds before 2027?

Yes91¢

No9¢

Yes ≈ 91% chance

Ɱ281 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Google terminate access to any of its tech to Israel, citing use on Palestinians, by EOY 2026?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ253 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Sam Altman reference OpenAI achieving AGI in five tweets prior to the official announcement?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ180 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

[ACX 2026] Will an AI-created song chart in the top 20 of the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ215 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By 2028, AI can translate a text written in a newly discovered language into English as well as a team of human experts

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an LLM defeat Magnus Carlsen before 2029?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ294 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Obama be formally associated with Anthropic before 2030?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a vessel be launched to test MOND vs Lambda-CDM model before 2035?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ89 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before the end of 2028?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ235 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a baby be born on the Moon before a dog walks on Mars?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ540 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will someone train an LLM using a dataset that has had all references to consciousness removed?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ315 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

AI: Valuation above $1T by 2035

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ330 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI extend English before 2032?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ892 Vol▲ 0pts5y