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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 24 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2505 Tech Company Valuations 938 Big tech & chips 638 Space 497 Science 296 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,366 markets · page 24 of 57

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?

Anthropic / Claude100¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ4.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?

‹ Prev1…2223242526…57Next ›

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$81.8K Vol▼ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 75% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 75%

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$308 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI religion have more than 1000 members in 2026?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ476 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

AI data center in space by December 31, 2026?

Yes5¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$15.2K Vol1y

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 80% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 80%

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$674 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Microsoft close or divest itself of Rare in 2026?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ174 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?

Yes25¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$14.1K Vol1y

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 85% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 85%

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$620 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Anthropic leave AWS in 2026?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ4.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Another Blue Origin rocket explodes by Oct 31?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$349 Vol3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 90% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 90%

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$763 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "The Invisible Side of AI Governance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ20 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$378 Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will all U.S.-licensed commercial launch providers cumulatively have in Jul 2026? — Above 11

Yes97¢

No3¢

Yes ≈ 97% chance

$1.9K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Manifold· Play

Open

Is Anthropic's "Confidential Investor" Elon Musk?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi

Open

Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $450 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?

Recent price hikes and the historical floor for MacBook pricing make a sub-$450 price point on Apple.com nearly impossible, overwhelming the market toward No despite potential Black Friday discounts.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$82 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?

Yes92¢

No8¢

Yes ≈ 92% chance

Ɱ3.7K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Kalshi

Open

Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $500 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$82 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?

Yes95¢

No5¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $550 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$9 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ848 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will lowest priced of the any MacBook model on Apple.com be below $600 on November 27th, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

$44 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo