AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
1,130 markets · page 29 of 48
17 outcomes
3 outcomes
6 outcomes
5 outcomes
3 outcomes
Yes ≈ 41% chance
The field is moderately concentrated (top three sum 54%) but with 10 candidates above 5%, indicating a competitive race where recent high-profile hires like John Jumper (Startup Fortune, Jun 19) have likely boosted confidence in Anthropic's ability to attract top talent, making the front-runners' odds more credible yet still open to surprises.
12 outcomes
The market heavily doubts a niche historical essay on Egyptian Mamluks will crack the top 50 on LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review, likely because the topic is far from the site's core AI and rationality focus, and no recent buzz or catalyst has shifted that perception.
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Yes ≈ 54% chance
Century High School's 9% chance of qualifying for Science Olympiad Nationals reflects the steep competition in Minnesota, where only a handful of teams advance each year, making the odds heavily stacked against any single school.
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 99% chance