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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 5 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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2,553 markets · page 5 of 107

Kalshi

Open

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1520 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1520 score

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

$7.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

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Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026? — 1510+

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$9.7K Vol▲ 3pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ601 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

Will Anthropic release Mythos before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Anthropic's Mythos is already deployed in limited form to trusted US organizations and financial infrastructure, but the market sees a low chance of a full public release under that name by year-end, partly due to access restrictions and a rival Microsoft project.

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$190K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket🔭 2 venues

Open

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500? — 1500+

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

$12.2K Vol▲ 17pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ328 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Kalshi🔭 2 venues

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1500

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$632 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Which company has #1 AI model end of August? (Style Control On)

Anthropic90¢

32 outcomes

$13.1K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI contribute novel theorywork to agent foundations before 2028?

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ276 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Dec 1, 2026

Yes58¢

No42¢

Yes ≈ 58% chance

$28.1K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? — 1480+

Yes72¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

$10.3K Vol▼ 16pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

At the end of 2026, will there be any European model that ranks higher than a model currently on LLM Agent Arena?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ107 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi🔭 2 venues

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1470

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

$500 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? — 55%+

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

$2.8K Vol▲ 15pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI pass the Longbets version of the Turing test by the end of 2029?

The market is pricing a slight edge for a machine passing a specific, high-bar version of the Turing test by 2029, but the near-coin-flip odds reflect deep uncertainty about whether LLM advances will translate into the sustained, adversarial conversation required by the Longbets format, not just raw capability gains.

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ744K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? — 55%+

Yes39¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

$3.5K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1490

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

$305 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket🔭 2 venues

Open

Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026? — 1500+

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$9.5K Vol▲ 3pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the EU publish final AI Act Article 73 incident guidance by Aug 2, 2026?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ101 Vol▲ 0pts7d

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? — At least 60%

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

$3.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of July?

Anthropic96¢

26 outcomes

$372K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI announce a new model that EpochAI estimates is at least as large as GPT-4.5, before August 2026?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ3.5K Vol▲ 0pts6d

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT? — Before 2027

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$70.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket🔭 2 venues

Open

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? — 1510+

Despite recent activity around Gemini Flash models, no new Pro model has appeared on the Arena leaderboard since Gemini 3.1 Pro in February, and the 1510 threshold is very high; the recent upward odds movement likely reflects speculation that Google's rapid Flash iterations signal an imminent Pro release, but the base rate of Pro model scores makes a 'Yes' unlikely.

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$12.9K Vol▲ 10pts—