Skip to content

Discover ✨Ask Topics Community 🎓Learn

PredictPal is a neutral, third-party aggregator of public prediction-market data. It is informational only — not affiliated with any platform, and it does not facilitate trading or hold funds. Market data is sourced from each platform’s public API and may be delayed.

Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

Compare odds across venues·Resolved markets·How it works·Support·Privacy Policy·Terms of Service

Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 50 | PredictPal · PredictPal

💻

Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2412 Tech Company Valuations 897 Big tech & chips 620 Space 463 Science 271 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,325 markets · page 50 of 56

Manifold· Play

Open

Before 2100, will AI cause the human population to fall below 5000 individuals?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…4849505152…56Next ›

Will a human walk on Mars before 2030?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ19.2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a human land on the moon by this [YEAR]?

203489¢

11 outcomes

Ɱ20.2K Vol▲ 0pts7y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Taiwan war timelines might be shorter than AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ270 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Simeon Campos end up working for https://brief.bismarckanalysis.com/p/ai-2026-mistral-will-rise-as-compute by 2038?

Yes48¢

No52¢

Yes ≈ 48% chance

Ɱ5 Vol▲ 0pts11y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla cease to be the most valuable automaker by market cap for any amount of time before the end of 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ24.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI find vulnerabilities that couldn't have been found by an elite human researcher?

Yes64¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ4.5K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "AI 2040: Plan A" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes89¢

No11¢

Yes ≈ 89% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a human walk on Mars before 2037?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts10y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a child of Elon Musk be CEO of Tesla, X, xAI, or SpaceX by the end of 2035?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ202 Vol▲ 0pts9y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Anthropic have a higher market cap than SpaceX after both IPO?

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

Ɱ15.3K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Apple skip sequential numbering and not name its next flagship iPhone released in 2026 “iPhone 18”?

Yes24¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ142 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI double the human lifespan within 10 years? (Before february 2035)

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ3.2K Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a nuclear detonation happen in space by the end of 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ7.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI-powered tool produce a convincing video of a gay orgy (#LemonParty) of the entire Paypal Mafia by 2026?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ387 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Tesla overtake NVIDIA in market cap before 2030?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ13.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Any SOTA AI model uses human-understandable thinking medium at the end of 2028?

Yes71¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

Ɱ4.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI be able to write a passable Manifold weekly newsletter by EOY 2026?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ3.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of Tesla before the end of 2028?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ333 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Google's market cap exceed NVIDIA's by EOY 2026?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Ɱ3.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Apple announce a foldable phone that is not branded as an iPhone by the end of 2026?

Despite persistent rumors of a foldable iPhone Ultra, the market assigns near-zero probability to Apple announcing a foldable phone that is not branded as an iPhone by end of 2026, because all credible leaks point to an iPhone-branded device, not a separate product line.

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ9.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the AI bubble pop in 2026?

Despite a flurry of headlines using 'bubble pop' language, the market overwhelmingly dismisses a 2026 pop because most of those headlines are either unrelated to AI or come from low-credibility sources, while the one credible financial analysis argues the pullback is neither a bubble pop nor a dip worth buying.

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ135K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI AND xAI have an IPO in 2026?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will apple sell a computer with cell phone connectivity by the end of 2026?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ397 Vol▲ 0pts5mo