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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 8 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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2,585 markets · page 8 of 108

Kalshi

Open

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1750 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1750 score

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$1.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…678910…108Next ›

Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$3.3K Vol▼ 8pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI exec equate AGI to religious end-times in 2026?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ149 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027 — At least 1530 score

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$3.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 31, 2026?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$87K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

If not passed, will there be any open source model that would have been covered by SB 1047, by January 1st 2027?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ860 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

When will any AI solves at least 1 Frontier Math: Open Problems? — Before November

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

$3.9K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? — 60%+

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$3.2K Vol▼ 4pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI de-deploy GPT-5.5 before 2027 for safety, security, cyber-risk, or other threat-related reasons?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ364 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will OpenAI release GPT-6 before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

$22.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Which company has #1 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)

Anthropic98¢

26 outcomes

$126K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI Fail by EOY 2028?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ4.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? — Before Nov 1, 2026

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

$32.9K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Alibaba66¢

25 outcomes

$20K Vol▲ 2pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors?

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ20 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Earbuds/Headphones

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$51.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?

Yes46¢

No54¢

Yes ≈ 46% chance

$14.9K Vol2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

State of AI gets ≥4 of 10 predictions right?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ42.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Which company will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series to the public? — Peacock

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$787 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Second-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of August?

Other50¢

34 outcomes

$1.7K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ160 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Clip-on device for clothing

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

$22.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$69.1K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI pay damages exceeding $1 million in a tort liability case by 2028?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ177 Vol▲ 0pts1y