AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
826 markets · page 8 of 35
12 outcomes
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 44% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Despite a July 19 surprise showing that a Chinese model rivaled top US systems, the 15% Yes probability reflects deep structural barriers: US government countermeasures and doubts about Chinese AI business models, not merely a capability gap.
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 43% chance
Yes ≈ 45% chance
Yes ≈ 51% chance
Yes ≈ 54% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 50% chance
Yes ≈ 100% chance
Yes ≈ 60% chance
Yes ≈ 9% chance
Anthropic's Mythos is already deployed in limited form to trusted US organizations and financial infrastructure, but the market sees a low chance of a full public release under that name by year-end, partly due to access restrictions and a rival Microsoft project.
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 64% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 66% chance
Yes ≈ 83% chance
Despite Tesla's strong EV sales, the Optimus humanoid robot has zero production count and Musk himself has rejected claims of being secretly ahead, making a 2026 public sale look highly unlikely.
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 59% chance