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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 2 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3805 US elections 2674 President ✨ 754 Foreign politics 402 Republican ✨ 325 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Iran ✨ 126 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 Political ✨ 81 Presidential Candidacy 71 Person of the Year Awards 12

925 markets · page 2 of 39

Kalshi

Open

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$5.7K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1234…39Next ›

Open

Will Gavin Newsom be elected President in 2028?

Newsom is using Trump's controversial rhetoric to position himself as the leading Democratic voice against the incumbent, but his 14% odds reflect a long primary field and historical headwinds against California governors winning the presidency.

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ54K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$196K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Will the President be impeached before Mar 1, 2027? — Before Mar 1, 2027

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

$202K Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2028?

The field is moderately concentrated, with the top three candidates holding 52% of the probability, but the recent headlines are entirely about a Maine Senate race, not the presidential primary, indicating no major national shift has occurred in the last 24 hours.

Gavin Newsom21¢

62 outcomes

Ɱ252K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$94.2K Vol1mo

Kalshi

Open

Will President Trump resign before his term is up? — Before his term ends

The market heavily favors Trump staying in office, but the recent surge in impeachment speculation on Polymarket suggests traders see a non-resignation removal as more likely than a voluntary exit, leaving the resignation odds low despite elevated political risk.

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$300K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

🇧🇷 President in Jan 2027 is Lula, or whoever he endorses / Lula ou seu indicado é presidente em janeiro de 2027

The market is pricing a 61% chance that Lula or his endorsed successor holds Brazil's presidency in January 2027, but the recent headlines are almost entirely about US politics and global security, not Brazilian domestic dynamics, suggesting the odds are being driven by general sentiment about incumbents and global trends rather than Brazil-specific events.

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ73.2K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

Yes9¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$2.8M Vol5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028

The market is pricing a 59% chance of impeachment before 2028, but the recent headlines are almost entirely about the ongoing impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte in the Philippines, not the U.S. President, making the odds appear disconnected from the actual resolution condition.

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

$860K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump announce he is running for President in the 2028 election?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ152 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Will the Workers' Party nominate Lula for President of Brazil by August 15?

Yes96¢

No4¢

Yes ≈ 96% chance

$125K Vol▼ 2pts19d

Kalshi🔭 2 venues

Open

Will Barack Obama be arrested before Jan 2027?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$226K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez ever become the President of the USA?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Zambia Presidential Election Winner

Hakainde Hichilema89¢

30 outcomes

$109K Vol▲ 0pts18d

Kalshi

Open

Will the President sign more than 2 Executive Orders between Jul 19, 2026 and Jul 25, 2026? — Above 2

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$6.4K Vol▲ 0pts12d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump say he is candidate for a third term as president during the year of 2028?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ5.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Pete Buttigieg

Yes11¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

$13.6K Vol▼ 3pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$2.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance be nominated for President for the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Vance is the frontrunner by insider buzz and Trump's blessing, but a lack of establishment donor support and a potential Rubio comeback—backed by big money like Ken Griffin—keep the race fluid despite the 41% odds.

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ81.5K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Democratic VP Nominee 2028

Roy Cooper22¢

128 outcomes

$66.3K Vol▲ 1pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028? — Before Jan 1, 2028

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$8.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Kamala Harris announce a Presidential run before 2027?

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$43.4K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AOC be the first female President?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts—