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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 3 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3846 US elections 2715 President ✨ 763 Foreign politics 415 Republican ✨ 328 Future US Presidents 217 US Political Timelines 202 Iran ✨ 127 Leader Tenure Predictions 115 Political ✨ 83 Presidential Candidacy 73 Person of the Year Awards 12

90 markets · page 3 of 4

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ991 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1234Next ›

Will any furry convention be cancelled or moved for political reasons by the end of 2026?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ285 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the YIMBY/NIMBY divide line up with political affiliation in the USA before 2027?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ271 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Artificial Intelligence (AI) policy be an explicitly partisan political issue before 2030 🤖🇺🇸⚖️💻

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will an AI be elected into any political office in any country before 2035?

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Open

Any of 7 ratcheting political or sports systems decreases

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ56 Vol▲ 0pts13y

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2028 will China have managed to decouple political growth and increasing political control, according to economists

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ89 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will >5% of >2 FTX political donations received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ345 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a political party aligned with the Effective Altruism movement hold 1+ seats in any nation's parliament by 2030?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ475 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

In her next campaign for elected office, will Alexandra Ocasio Cortez win the sought political position?

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

Ɱ99 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any Anti-Cheat programs be misused for political or financial gains by 2030?

Yes63¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

Ɱ30 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Greta Thunberg run for or be appointed to any political role before the end of 2030?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2050?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ829 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will Liz Truss ever again lead a political party with at least 1 sitting MP?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ340 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will the European Union still exist as a meaningful political entity in the year 2075?

Yes49¢

No51¢

Yes ≈ 49% chance

Ɱ109 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will a comedian win the presidential nomination from either major US political party by 2040?

Yes73¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ142 Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Open

Will Therianthropic transitions be a major political issue by 2074?

Yes64¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ897 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will the generation after generation alpha also be defined by a technological rather than political/cultural change?

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Ɱ77 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will John Bolton (American attorney, diplomat, political commentator) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Yes54¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ491 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ11.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Is Prometheum primarily a boring crypto grift with no significant political forces behind it?

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Ɱ20 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Pierre Poilievre have a Political Comeback? 🇨🇦🏛️👀

Yes32¢

No68¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ959 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Open

Will "Gears for political races" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ1 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

By 2027, will a political party whose platform centers on AI rights get at least 1% of the vote in a national election?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ2.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo