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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 4 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3786 US elections 2657 Foreign politics 400 Political Leader Tenure 336 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 201 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 US Political Future 105 Presidential Candidacy 71 US Political Milestones ✨ 30 Person of the Year Awards 12 Sports & Political Leadership 10

10,759 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 4 of 417

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Republicans win the Senate in the 2026 elections?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ90.4K Vol4mo

Futuur

Open

‹ Prev123456…417Next ›

Iran to agree to end uranium enrichment by ...?

December 3139¢

3 outcomes

$576 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom20¢

128 outcomes

$1.2B Vol▼ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Gianni / Infantino

Yes99¢

No1¢

Yes ≈ 99% chance

$135K Vol1d

InsightX

Open

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$39M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

2028 Democratic Presidential Nominee

Jon Ossoff21¢

27 outcomes

£7.9K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ20K Vol5mo

Futuur

Open

How many ‘Core #1’ convicts from Brazil’s coup plot trial will lose military ranks in 2026?

060¢

4 outcomes

$470 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?

The odds have surged on Iran's secret 10-day ceasefire proposal and the absence of major violations, but the underlying US-Iran military confrontation continues, making the ceasefire fragile.

Yes85¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

$1.3M Vol▲ 19pts5d

Kalshi

Open

Trump Truth Social posts this week? (7/19-7/25)

120-13999¢

10 outcomes

$284K Vol6h

InsightX

Open

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$35.1M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Smarkets

Open

Which party will control the Senate after the midterm elections?

Republican Party54¢

2 outcomes

£7.6K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2028, will AI be at least as big a political issue as abortion?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ2.5M Vol1y

Futuur

Open

Masoud Pezeshkian out as President of Iran by ...?

December 3124¢

3 outcomes

$460 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket🔭 2 venues⚡ Moving fast

Open

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Despite the near-zero odds, the real story is that multiple independent indicators—tanker crossings, seizure incidents, and expert timelines—all point to a prolonged disruption that makes a return to the IMF's 60-call threshold within days virtually impossible.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$20.9M Vol▲ 0pts4d

InsightX

Open

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei79¢

2 outcomes

$35M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will "SAVE Act" (H.R. 22) becomes law before Jan 4, 2027? — Before Jan 4, 2027

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$9.6M Vol5mo

Smarkets

Open

Clacton By-Election - Count Binface Vote Share

10.00% - 19.99%48¢

5 outcomes

£5.9K Vol▲ 1pts18d

Manifold· Play

Open

2028 US Presidential Election winner?

JD Vance18¢

45 outcomes

Ɱ1.3M Vol2y

Futuur

Open

Elected Senators for Rio Grande do Sul in 2026

Marcel van Hattem61¢

5 outcomes

$418 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by July 31?

Despite headlines of Houthi attacks and a blockade on Saudi tankers, the market sees a 0% chance of the Bab el-Mandeb effectively closing by July 31 because the resolution metric—a 7-day moving average of transit calls ≤10—is a lagging indicator that cannot drop that low in the remaining few days given normal traffic of ~70-80 per day.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$1.1M Vol▼ 3pts4d

InsightX

Open

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Benjamin Netanyahu38¢

2 outcomes

$29.1M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

South Dakota Republican Governor nominee?

Larry Rhoden98¢

2 outcomes

$1.2M Vol3mo

Smarkets

Open

Next General Election Conservative Leader - Kemi Badenoch

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

£5.9K Vol▲ 0pts3y