Politics prediction markets
Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
AllUS governance 3881US elections 2765Foreign politics 427Political Leader Tenure 354Future US Presidents 225US Political Timelines 203Leader Tenure Predictions 117US Political Future 107Presidential Candidacy 75Person of the Year Awards 13Sports & Political Leadership 10
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Cuban regime falls in 2026?
Despite a slight uptick in Yes odds this week, the market heavily favors the regime surviving, reflecting the PCC's deep-rooted institutional control; the real story is that economic collapse and external pressure have so far failed to produce a clear political rupture, and the recent movement likely stems from news of Raúl Castro's indictment and rising Trump administration impatience, both of which increase uncertainty without guaranteeing a regime fall.
Yes18¢
No82¢
Yes ≈ 18% chance
$1.5M Vol 3pts