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Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?

The market's 60% Yes reflects a prevailing belief that AI researchers face a distinct psychological risk, but with no recent news about Ben Yan, the odds are driven by general assumptions rather than specific evidence.

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ118 Vol 0pts5mo

Tech prediction markets

Will Ben Yan experience AI psychosis in 2026?

Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?

Will OpenAI increase the cost of ChatGPT? — Before 2027

Will Grand Theft Auto 8 release before a human steps on Mars?

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 27, 2026?

Will any LLM score at least 70% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2026? — At least 70%

Google deploys ads in Gemini web or mobile app by end of 2026

Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? — 55%+

Will SpaceX's Starship launch from Florida this year? — Before 2027

At the beginning of 2035, what percentage of Manifold users will believe that an AI intelligence explosion is a significant concern before 2075?

What will be the price of a foldable iPhone? — At least $2000

#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?

Will there be an AI-powered trader on Manifold in the top 20 profit leaderboard by end of 2026?

Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026? — Last Energy

Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?

If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

Hunter McGrady

Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? — 70%+

Will there be a well accepted formal definition for honesty in AI by 2027?

Which AI will be the first to hit 1550 on Text Arena?

Will Elon post "Soccer" on X this week?

Will avg psychedelics/employee use at OpenAI in 2026 be less than 70% of its use rate in 2025?

Jasmine Sanders

Precipitation in NYC in July?