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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 13 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2383 Tech Company Valuations 889 Big tech & chips 606 Space 457 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,481 markets · page 13 of 187

Kalshi

Open

Will Ungraded Price of the Team Rocket’s Moltres ex Ultra-Premium Collection on Collectr be above $358.19 on 2026-07-31T23:59:00-04:00? — Above $358.19

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$2.6K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

‹ Prev1…1112131415…187Next ›

Open

Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?

Yes17¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

$22.8K Vol▲ 4pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI Fail by EOY 2028?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ4.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will the RTX 5090 compute per hour price be above $0.43 on Jul 31? — Above $0.43

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

$2.2K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Will Tesla sell a Cybercab for 30k or less in 2026?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$47.8K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Conditional on a seed AI existing, will it actually create successors?

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

Ɱ20 Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Above 14000 Cyclosporiasis cases in the United States during 2026 — Above 14k

Yes77¢

No23¢

Yes ≈ 77% chance

$2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will GPT-6 be released by July 31, 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$69.1K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

When will Rocket Lab Neutron launch for the first time?

Before 2027-07-0174¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ15.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist before Dec 1, 2026? — Before December

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$51.3K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Elon post "China" on X this week?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$1.1K Vol▼ 15pts14h

Manifold· Play

Open

State of AI gets ≥4 of 10 predictions right?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ42.8K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

In Dec 31, 2026

Despite recent WHO briefings and a cruise-ship outbreak, hantavirus has never triggered a PHEIC and current clusters remain contained, keeping the odds at 5%.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$1.6M Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?

No release by July 3197¢

32 outcomes

$371K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026? — Above 170

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

$70.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

Yes83¢

No17¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ160 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? — 45%+

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

$1.2K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1470

Yes88¢

No12¢

Yes ≈ 88% chance

$500 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI pay damages exceeding $1 million in a tort liability case by 2028?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ177 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher? — 50%+

The 18-point surge in Yes odds reflects market optimism about Moonshot's newly released Kimi K3 model, but the lack of direct HLE results and allegations of distillation from Claude Fable create significant uncertainty about whether it can reach the 50% threshold.

Yes30¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

$1.7K Vol▼ 10pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

next Claude Opus debut score? — Above 1490

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

$305 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Tesla Roadster (2nd gen) be the fastest production car before 2032?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts5y

Polymarket

Open

Gemini 4.0 released by July 31, 2026?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$16.5K Vol▲ 0pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Will any LLM score at least 60% on Humanity's Last Exam before Dec 31, 2027? — At least 60%

Yes87¢

No13¢

Yes ≈ 87% chance

$3.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y