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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 181 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2383 Tech Company Valuations 889 Big tech & chips 606 Space 457 Science 269 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,481 markets · page 181 of 187

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI or Google announce an release a reduction to image generation filters around nudity by EOY 2027?

Yes39¢

No61¢

Yes ≈ 39% chance

Ɱ711 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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‹ Prev1…179180181182183…187Next ›

Open

Will the first AI-generated song win a major music award (like a Grammy, MTV VMA, or similar) by the end of 2026?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ24.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Could AI research see a shift in focus soon?

Yes22¢

No78¢

Yes ≈ 22% chance

Ɱ1.1K Vol▲ 0pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will humans landing on the Mars in this decade?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ758 Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Open

Will a major science publication claim that humans have "cheated death" by 2040?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ743 Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

Yes30¢

No70¢

Yes ≈ 30% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

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A publicly available, general purpose LLM from a major AI lab is advertised with robotics capabilities before 2028

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ317 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

Will Lada Nuzhna have a higher google search volume than Laura Deming by 2030?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

Ɱ108 Vol▲ 0pts5y

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Open

$1T AI training cluster before 2031?

Yes50¢

No50¢

Yes ≈ 50% chance

Ɱ7.4K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Open

Do OpenAI leadership actually believe they could develop AGI?

Yes82¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 82% chance

Ɱ390 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

AI market summary causes controversial resolution of M$10,000 or more before 2027?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ313 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will a human walk on Mars before 2045?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts18y

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Open

Will humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?

Yes3¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will "Model Organisms for Emergent Misalignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ24 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Will Elon Musk spend a month in outer space?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will the "AI Longbets Turing Test by 2029" market go above 80% by EOY 2026?

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ800 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will my standard of living 3 years from now be meaningfully affected by AI?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ877 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

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Will an AI be convicted of a crime in a US court by 2050?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ435 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Slopotopia: Have we reached peak AI slop in 2025?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ397 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ753 Vol▲ 0pts5d

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Will we get fusion reactors before a human walks on Mars?

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ1.8K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Will Jeff Maurer think AI is a huge deal by 2046?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ125 Vol▲ 0pts19y

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Open

Will @she_llac be mentioned in Apple's security patch notes before the end of this year?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ27 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Anthropic reaches $1T+ valuation before OpenAI?

Yes56¢

No44¢

Yes ≈ 56% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo