Skip to content

Discover ✨Ask Topics Community 🎓Learn

PredictPal is a neutral, third-party aggregator of public prediction-market data. It is informational only — not affiliated with any platform, and it does not facilitate trading or hold funds. Market data is sourced from each platform’s public API and may be delayed.

Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

Compare odds across venues·Resolved markets·How it works·Support·Privacy Policy·Terms of Service

Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 183 | PredictPal · PredictPal

💻

Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

🔭 Compare tech odds across venues →

All AI 2354 Tech Company Valuations 875 Big tech & chips 602 Space 445 Science 264 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,433 markets · page 183 of 185

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a vessel be launched to test MOND vs Lambda-CDM model before 2035?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ89 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…181182183184185Next ›

Open

Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before the end of 2028?

Yes29¢

No71¢

Yes ≈ 29% chance

Ɱ235 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a baby be born on the Moon before a dog walks on Mars?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ540 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will someone train an LLM using a dataset that has had all references to consciousness removed?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ315 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

AI: Valuation above $1T by 2035

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ330 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

If AI wipes out humanity by 2030, will Manifold Markets be operational?

Yes53¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 53% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI extend English before 2032?

Yes69¢

No31¢

Yes ≈ 69% chance

Ɱ892 Vol▲ 0pts5y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI do large layoffs this year?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ349 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Microsoft eliminate every line of C and C++ by 2030?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ581 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI solve a famous unsolved crime before April of 2028?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ321 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?

Yes63¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

Ɱ956 Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI name another model Codex by the end of this year?

Yes20¢

No80¢

Yes ≈ 20% chance

Ɱ4.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

SOAI#1: A major retailer reports >5% of online sales from agentic checkout as AI agent advertising spend hits $5B.

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

In which year will a majority of AI researchers concur that a superintelligent, fairly general AI has been realized?

Some year after 2040.31¢

21 outcomes

Ɱ35.1K Vol▲ 0pts14y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Mistral AI release a model named "le chaton fat" by EOY 2026

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ90 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

An LLM beats the Champion in FireRed BEFORE achieving it in Gen 1 Red?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ40 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

High Quality AI-Generated Video Games by prompt before 2027?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ4.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Did tech companies spy on you through device microphones?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ10.5K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

AI outperforms humans in all mathematical research areas by 2028?

The market heavily doubts AI will surpass humans across all mathematical research areas by 2028, largely due to recent high-profile demonstrations where AI models failed rigorous math tests that humans aced, shifting the burden of proof onto AI proponents.

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ71K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

The market is deadlocked at 50/50 because there is no clear catalyst or recent breakthrough to swing opinion; the core disagreement is whether AI can replicate the emotional depth and historical context of Romantic poetry, a subjective and high bar.

Yes45¢

No55¢

Yes ≈ 45% chance

Ɱ65.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ490 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Human dies on Mars by 2050

Yes37¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 37% chance

Ɱ366 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?

The market strongly bets that generalist AI will conquer Minecraft before 2035, but without a recent catalyst, this confidence relies on extrapolating broader AI trends rather than a specific breakthrough.

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ28.2K Vol▲ 0pts8y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will brain organoid computing solve a problem which is infeasible using existing digital AI in the next 10 years?

Yes24¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ806 Vol▲ 0pts7y