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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 179 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2403 Tech Company Valuations 893 Big tech & chips 615 Space 462 Science 270 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,523 markets · page 179 of 189

Manifold· Play

Open

Will SpaceX be involved as one of the first organizations to get a human to walk on Mars?

Yes71¢

No29¢

Yes ≈ 71% chance

Ɱ148 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…177178179180181…189Next ›

Open

By 2027, will the presidents of the US and China participate in a conversation in which an LLM also participates?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ148 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will SpaceX be nationalized by EoY 2030?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Before 2028, will any prediction market find a robust way to run a market on AI extinction risk? [M$50,000 reward]

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

AI controlled drone dogfights will make a debut in Ukraine by end of war.

Yes54¢

No47¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ3.1K Vol▲ 0pts14y

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Open

The % of people who will think top AI firms are racing in 2026 (Resolves to Yes/Probably on poll)

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ115 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

This market resolves to PROB equals 10x the percentage of the US human population that declare being romantic involved with some AI in 2050.

Yes62¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ265 Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be a Tesla factory in Saudi Arabia before 2030?

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ289 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will I be the victim of an AI blackmail/ransom threat by EOY 2031?

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts5y

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Open

Will a dog walk on Mars before the end of 2080?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ610 Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will selling your own chat history for AI training be possible before 2030?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ148 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will there be more software engineers in five years than there are today?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ53K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Open

Will an international pause on large AI training runs be in effect on Jan 1, 2028?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ983 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Open

By the end of 2026, will AI have empowered me to build a bot that can reach the top 500 in the current gen of OU?

Yes38¢

No62¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ51 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Medical researchers publish papers crediting OpenAI tools with major progress in any of 30 top diseases by mid 2027

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ344 Vol▲ 0pts11mo

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Open

Will growth in the maximum MW used to train AIs, slow down by more than x2 after GPT-6-like?

Yes60¢

No40¢

Yes ≈ 60% chance

Ɱ50 Vol▲ 0pts13y

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Open

Will Starship land on Mars to return the MSR samples?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

Ɱ373 Vol▲ 0pts9y

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Open

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

Will "My model of what is going on with LLMs" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ68 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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If AI destroys the world by 2035, will it be largely due to a company/lab based in the San Francisco Bay Area?

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ54 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will a large language model (or AI) successfully convince someone to take amphetamine (off-label, not for ADHD) by 2035?

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ30 Vol▲ 0pts10y

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Will AI wipe out Raccoons before the year 2030?

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

Ɱ3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

Will an AI be elected to public office in the USA by 2034? (850M subsidy)

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ2.9K Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Did Alan Turing believe there was a non-negligible risk that AI would exterminate or enslave humanity?

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

Ɱ282 Vol▲ 0pts—