AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
4,587 markets · page 189 of 192
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Yes ≈ 29% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 25% chance
Yes ≈ 53% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 63% chance
10 outcomes
Yes ≈ 20% chance
Yes ≈ 27% chance
The field is heavily back-loaded, with 31% assigned to 'some year after 2040' and 10% to AGI causing human extinction before consensus, while near-term years (2028–2032) each sit below 10% — indicating that most bettors expect either a very long wait or a catastrophic interruption rather than a clean breakthrough in the next decade.
21 outcomes
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
The market heavily doubts AI will surpass humans across all mathematical research areas by 2028, largely due to recent high-profile demonstrations where AI models failed rigorous math tests that humans aced, shifting the burden of proof onto AI proponents.
Yes ≈ 23% chance
The market is skeptical that AI will match Romantic poets by 2028, despite rapid progress in language models, because the task demands a depth of human emotion and cultural context that current systems lack.
Yes ≈ 45% chance
Yes ≈ 80% chance