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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 20 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 3102 Tech Company Valuations 1169 Big tech & chips 933 Space 784 Science 589 Through 40 Software Engineering Trends 16 Elevator 16 Space Development 12 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 11 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

3,310 markets · page 20 of 138

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a model of chatGPT state lab-leak theory is the origin of covid 19 before 2030?

Yes80¢

No20¢

Yes ≈ 80% chance

Ɱ421 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…1819202122…138Next ›

Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

Yes13¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$8.2K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

Yes44¢

No56¢

Yes ≈ 44% chance

Ɱ8.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?

The 25-point drop in the past week suggests the market is losing confidence that Anthropic will release a new Haiku model by year-end, possibly due to the absence of any Haiku update since October 2025 and a perceived shift toward higher-end reasoning models.

Yes59¢

No41¢

Yes ≈ 59% chance

$3.2K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI chatbot overtake Google as the most used search engine by 2030?

Yes41¢

No59¢

Yes ≈ 41% chance

Ɱ472 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Polymarket

Open

AI data center in space by December 31, 2027?

Despite recent headlines about SpaceX and Google planning orbital data centers, the odds remain low at 25% due to regulatory and environmental pushback, as well as skepticism about technical feasibility by the end of 2027.

Yes25¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$14.1K Vol1y

Manifold· Play

Open

When will AIs be good at predicting the future?

203094¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ5K Vol16y

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$61.4K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

How much AI extinction risk would you accept?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ181 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Clip-on device for clothing

Yes12¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$26.6K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By when will LLM chess bots beat other engines? (Permanent)

The field is highly concentrated on the 2050-or-earlier and 2040-or-earlier options, together commanding 39% of probability, but the long tail of earlier dates (2027–2030) sums to 31%, reflecting a belief that an LLM-based engine could beat Stockfish within a few years if a breakthrough occurs, while the 2% on 'End of 2026 or earlier' shows extreme skepticism about immediate progress.

2050 or earlier20¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ370K Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? — ↑ 1540

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$522 Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Yes43¢

No57¢

Yes ≈ 43% chance

Ɱ5K Vol▲ 0pts—

Manifold· Play

Open

WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ508 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$29.4K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?

Palantir42¢

18 outcomes

Ɱ3K Vol—

Polymarket

Open

OpenAI $1T+ valuation in 2026?

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$26.7K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

When will a robot reliably pass "The Coffee Test"?

Before 203061¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ18.6K Vol3y

Polymarket

Open

Earbuds/Headphones

Yes34¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

$120K Vol5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? — Watch

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$40.9K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Leopold Aschenbrenner firing from OpenAI market

OpenAI was looking for a pretext to fire him before they identified the leak90¢

11 outcomes

Ɱ892 Vol11mo

Polymarket

Open

Computer (Laptop/Desktop)

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$26.8K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

If a friendly AI takes control of humanity, which of the propositions ought it find true?

We could map the entirety of analytic philosophy using this question.94¢

23 outcomes

Ɱ11.3K Vol—

Polymarket

Open

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31? — ↑ 1650

The market heavily discounts any AI model reaching a Chatbot Arena score of 1650 by year-end, reflecting skepticism that current frontier models can achieve such a high benchmark within five months, despite the platform's growing influence and revenue.

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$8.6K Vol5mo