AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
1,130 markets · page 28 of 48
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 4% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 7% chance
8 outcomes
Despite alarming AI-timeline warnings from scientists (UNILAD Tech, Jun 2025), the market gives only 41% to a public release of a model using the niche technique 'neuralese recurrence' by end of 2026, reflecting skepticism that this specific method will debut within the remaining months.
Yes ≈ 45% chance
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
The market heavily discounts a near-term AI breakthrough to 1700 on the LMSYS leaderboard, likely because no recent headline suggests a capability leap that dramatic, and the provided news flow is entirely non-AI (sports, politics, finance), reinforcing the status quo.
Yes ≈ 5% chance
The market's 28% 'Yes' reflects deep skepticism that a chatbot can jump from current best scores (~1250-1300 range) to 1530 within six months, a leap comparable to moving from average to elite human performance on a standardized test, with no clear evidence of a model on such a trajectory.
Yes ≈ 28% chance
2 outcomes
The market heavily doubts any AI model will hit the extremely high LMSYS Elo score of 1540 by year-end, reflecting a belief that the benchmark’s top end is far beyond current capabilities even with rapid progress.
Yes ≈ 24% chance
The market is nearly split because Google has not yet announced a Gemini 3.5 Pro model, and the clock is running toward a Jan 1, 2027 deadline, but the company's deep integration with Apple's Siri (Tempo.co English, Apr 23) suggests a major model release is plausible within the window.
Yes ≈ 40% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 17% chance
Yes ≈ 11% chance
7 outcomes
The field is highly concentrated on the early 2030s, with the top three candidates (2034, 2033, 2032) summing to 260%, reflecting market confidence that a crewed lunar landing will occur in that window; the single biggest recent shift is the surge of 2034 to 89%, likely driven by the May 2026 Space Daily report that NASA is restructuring its Artemis program by cutting science missions and partnerships, which could push the landing timeline later.
11 outcomes