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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 45 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2496 Tech Company Valuations 934 Big tech & chips 637 Space 497 Science 296 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

1,366 markets · page 45 of 57

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "10 non-boring ways I've used AI in the last month" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes12¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ255 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

‹ Prev1…4344454647…57Next ›

Open

Will Elon Musk get a chip implanted in his brain before the end of 2036?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ251 Vol▲ 0pts10y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will there be real-world protests in the US of at least 1,000 people against AI art by the end of 2026?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?

Yes10¢

No90¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

OpenAI annualized revenue run rate by end of 2026?

>=$25B100¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ6.3K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI broadly release a dedicated Cyber model to Trusted Access users by Sep 30, 2026?

Yes68¢

No32¢

Yes ≈ 68% chance

Ɱ112 Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

News coverage linking AI to suicide will triple — but actual suicides will not in 2026

Yes66¢

No34¢

Yes ≈ 66% chance

Ɱ722 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI write 75%+ of social media view-generating posts (default to Twitter) by EOY 2026?

Yes9¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ2.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk cease to be CEO of SpaceX before the end of 2026?

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

Ɱ936 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

AI company markets 'personality preservation' for model deprecations by end of 2026?

Yes54¢

No46¢

Yes ≈ 54% chance

Ɱ110 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Anthropic’s “Hot Mess” paper overstates its c..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ100 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026

Yes31¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 31% chance

Ɱ2.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will we get AGI before a human walks on Mars?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ3.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

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Open

How many top-50 US metros will Waymo serve at the end of 2026?

9 to 1680¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ4.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Anthropic 2026 peak valuation [old buckets]

Other95¢

11 outcomes

Ɱ19K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI make an unambiguously novel scientific discovery in 2026?

Yes83¢

No18¢

Yes ≈ 83% chance

Ɱ688 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2030)?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Open

AI bypass coding entirely by EOY 2026?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ22.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Open

Will a Google Play alternative make at least 1b in annual revenue in 2026?

Yes11¢

No89¢

Yes ≈ 11% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

[Will Brown] Will Transformative AI look like an abundance of specialized models, in August 2026?

Yes17¢

No83¢

Yes ≈ 17% chance

Ɱ3.3K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will human-AI marriage be legal in at least one country before 2029?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ471 Vol▲ 0pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI generate an appropriate remix (that sounds wonderful and not horrible enough [by reddit/my/the Internet's standards]) of the AOE2 and Starcraft 2 theme songs by 2026?

Yes84¢

No16¢

Yes ≈ 84% chance

Ɱ250 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a human step foot on Mars by 2030?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ13.7K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "Anthropic: "Statement from Dario Amodei on ou..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ322 Vol▲ 0pts1y