Tech prediction markets
AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
386 markets · page 5 of 17
Which company has the #3 AI model end of July? (Style Control On)
Anthropic's 95% dominance is uniquely extreme for a 26-candidate market, but the lack of any recent AI model leaderboard headlines since July 1 suggests the odds are being driven by an absence of fresh challenger news rather than an active widening of its lead.
26 outcomes
Will the highest score achieved by a Moonshot Kimi model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 45% or higher? — 45%+
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
The market heavily favors No because the current top model, Claude Fable 5, still appears far from 1580 and recent reports of a 'router problem' (Yellow.com, Jul 4) suggest its lead may be fragile, while challengers like GLM-5.2 are climbing but not closing the gap fast enough.
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Second-best Code Arena WebDev AI Lab end of August?
30 outcomes
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 27, 2026?
Yes ≈ 0% chance
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher? — 55%+
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 70% or higher? — 70%+
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Will there be at least 5000 cyclosporiasis cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026? — 5000+
Yes ≈ 89% chance
#2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on July 31?
14 outcomes
Which company has the best Text Arena Math AI model end of August?
34 outcomes
Will OpenAI announce a necklace-style wearable in 2026? — Necklace
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by December 31?
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Precipitation in NYC in July?
The field is moderately concentrated with the top two brackets (4-5" and 5-6") combining for 80%, but the recent heavy rain events in late July (NYT, Jul 21; PIX11, Jul 22) have pushed the odds upward from earlier drier expectations, making the >6" bracket a notable 25% contender.
6 outcomes
Will the next Claude Haiku model be released by December 31, 2026?
Yes ≈ 59% chance
Will the highest score achieved by a Meta model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 55% or higher? — 55%+
Yes ≈ 37% chance
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?
Musk and SpaceX COO have publicly floated a merger, but the market heavily discounts a 2026 announcement because no formal process is visible and SpaceX is busy with a $2.2T IPO trajectory and a $60B AI acquisition, making a controlling-interest deal logistically improbable within the timeframe.
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Will the next Claude Opus debut at a score of at least 1520 by December 31, 2026? — 1520+
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 40% or higher? — 40%+
Yes ≈ 88% chance