AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
4,387 markets · page 7 of 183
Yes ≈ 16% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 67% chance
Yes ≈ 65% chance
Yes ≈ 22% chance
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Yes ≈ 93% chance
Yes ≈ 14% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Despite a rise in measles cases that is on track to exceed last year's total, the threshold of 6,000 cases remains extremely unlikely given that even the worst recent year (2019) saw only 1,282 cases, explaining the 85% No odds.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 31% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 32% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
The market is pricing a slight edge for a machine passing a specific, high-bar version of the Turing test by 2029, but the near-coin-flip odds reflect deep uncertainty about whether LLM advances will translate into the sustained, adversarial conversation required by the Longbets format, not just raw capability gains.
Yes ≈ 54% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 45% chance
Yes ≈ 30% chance
11 outcomes