AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
4,482 markets · page 3 of 187
32 outcomes
8 outcomes
21 outcomes
Yes ≈ 3% chance
20 outcomes
30 outcomes
Despite Apple's historical pattern of annual September iPhone releases, the market assigns only a 16% chance to an iPhone 18 launch before 2027, driven by reports of a shift toward foldable models and a spring 2027 iPhone Air, suggesting Apple may skip or delay the traditional numbered update.
Yes ≈ 14% chance
38 outcomes
Yes ≈ 49% chance
Yes ≈ 91% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
30 outcomes
Yes ≈ 71% chance
The field is highly concentrated on the second half of 2026, with May and July already at 100% likely reflecting a catch-up cadence after a seven-month gap, and the biggest recent shift is the collapse of January odds to 0% as no launch materialized in early 2026 despite prior expectations. The single biggest recent shift is the drop of earlier-month odds (January through April) to near zero, driven by the seven-month launch gap ending only in May 2026 (Houston Chronicle, May 22).
12 outcomes
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
9 outcomes
Yes ≈ 5% chance
The field is heavily concentrated on completion within six months, driven by Flight 13's success which demonstrated near-orbital capability and payload deployment, but the sharp drop-off after late 2026 reflects lingering technical and regulatory risks.
40 outcomes