AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
1,297 markets · page 5 of 55
Yes ≈ 93% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
The market heavily discounts a model reaching 1540 Arena Score by September 2026, likely reflecting a belief that LLM performance gains are plateauing even as China's competitive push intensifies (Fortune, Apr 16).
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Despite a rise in measles cases that is on track to exceed last year's total, the threshold of 6,000 cases remains extremely unlikely given that even the worst recent year (2019) saw only 1,282 cases, explaining the 85% No odds.
Yes ≈ 15% chance
Yes ≈ 18% chance
Yes ≈ 10% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 83% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 38% chance
Yes ≈ 60% chance
11 outcomes
Yes ≈ 3% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance
Yes ≈ 35% chance
Yes ≈ 2% chance
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 30% chance
Yes ≈ 46% chance
Yes ≈ 59% chance