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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 23 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 4790 US elections 3968 President ✨ 934 Foreign politics 790 Republican ✨ 541 Future US Presidents 270 US Political Timelines 219 Leader Tenure Predictions 151 Political ✨ 109 Presidential Candidacy 89 Person of the Year Awards 18

13,236 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 23 of 417

ForecastEx

Open

South Carolina Republican Special Senate Primary (DG)

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

100 Vol1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

‹ Prev1…2122232425…417Next ›

Will Reform win the next UK election?

Reform UK's odds are depressed by a string of self-inflicted wounds: Farage's theatrical resignation and re-election bid, local council losses after defections, and a satirical challenger threatening his own seat. The market sees a party in disarray, not a credible contender for government.

Yes32¢

No69¢

Yes ≈ 32% chance

Ɱ98.2K Vol▲ 0pts3y

ForecastEx

Open

South Carolina Republican Special Senate Primary (DG)

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

100 Vol1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

How many House seats do the Democrats flip in 2026?

>= 595¢

5 outcomes

Ɱ5.4K Vol5mo

InsightX

Open

Iran invades Kuwait by...?

Despite a recent escalation of Iranian attacks on US and Kuwaiti assets (Crypto Briefing, Jul 21-23), the market prices a ground invasion of Kuwait at extremely low odds (top date 3%), indicating traders view the current conflict as a limited tit-for-tat rather than a prelude to full-scale invasion.

August 314¢

2 outcomes

$567K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

ForecastEx

Open

South Carolina Republican Special Senate Primary (DG)

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

100 Vol1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Netanyahu hugs/embraces Trump and/or Zelenskyy in July 2026?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ122 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

The field is moderately concentrated with the top three candidates holding 67% of the probability, but the largest recent shift is the surge of 'No Meeting by September 30' to 28%, driven by escalating military conflict after the US launched a 10th round of strikes and Iran declared a 'full-scale war' (The Guardian, Jul 20; CBS News, Jul 13), which has cast doubt on whether any formal talks can occur before the deadline.

No Meeting by September 3027¢

19 outcomes

$3.1M Vol2mo

ForecastEx

Open

South Carolina Republican Special Senate Primary (DG)

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

100 Vol1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will a sitting US Supreme Court justice resign or die in office before 2027?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ594 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

InsightX

Open

Oleksandr Syrskyi out as Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief by...?

The field is effectively binary between two dates, both at 100%, because Syrskyi has already been fired and replaced, making the market a foregone conclusion about the exact timing of an event that has already occurred.

July 31100¢

2 outcomes

$562K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

InsightX

Open

Which party will win the House in 2026?

The 81% odds for Democrats to hold the House reflect a structural advantage from redistricting and suburban backlash, but the recent primary upset in Arizona where an outsider beat the party's chosen candidate signals internal fractures that could complicate turnout and messaging.

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

$504K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

ForecastEx

Open

NE-01 General Election (AA)

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

100 Vol4mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2026 elections?

Despite a 14% probability, the real story is that Republicans face a structural disadvantage in 2026 due to historical midterm trends and a narrow majority, though recent redistricting wins and a special election victory have slightly boosted their odds.

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ57.6K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will a crypto market structure bill becomes law before Sep 1, 2026? — Before Sep 1, 2026

The market sees near-zero chance of a crypto market structure bill becoming law by September 1, 2026, despite recent bipartisan talks and White House agreement on ethics provisions, because the CLARITY Act's passage odds have hit a historic low and a Senate ethics dispute threatens progress.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$436K Vol▲ 0pts1mo

InsightX

Open

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Trump's renewed demand for Greenland at the NATO summit has pushed odds to 64%, but the market is pricing in a low-probability event given Denmark's firm opposition and the lack of a clear legal or political mechanism for acquisition.

Yes64¢

No36¢

Yes ≈ 64% chance

$500K Vol▲ 0pts5d

ForecastEx

Open

NE-01 General Election (AA)

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

100 Vol4mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Which of these conflicts will turn into a hot war in 2026?

Insurgencies in Iran100¢

10 outcomes

Ɱ59.3K Vol6mo

Polymarket

Open

Israel enacts military exemption for Yeshiva students by Sep 30?

Yes95¢

No6¢

Yes ≈ 95% chance

$26.7K Vol2mo

InsightX

Open

Houthis successfully target shipping by...?

The race was nearly certain at 100% 24 hours ago but has since crashed 51 points to 49% with no apparent catalyst, leaving the field unusually wide open for such a rapid reversal.

July 31100¢

2 outcomes

$495K Vol▼ 51pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

2028 Democratic nominee?

The field is unusually fragmented for this stage, with no candidate above 23% and the top three summing only 60%, but the biggest recent shift is the consolidation of Maine Democratic attention on Troy Jackson's Senate nomination, which has no direct impact on the 2028 presidential race but signals party organizational focus on swing-state Senate races (Reuters, Jul 25).

Other23¢

16 outcomes

Ɱ352K Vol▲ 0pts2y

ForecastEx

Open

NE-01 General Election (AA)

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

100 Vol4mo

Polymarket

Open

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? — December 31

Despite ongoing public interest and speculation, the market heavily favors no confirmation by year-end, reflecting that no official US statement has been made and time is running short.

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$36.3M Vol5mo

InsightX

Open

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Democrats' last-minute candidate swap in Maine, replacing scandal-plagued Graham Platner with ex-Republican Troy Jackson, has stabilized a must-win seat but leaves the party's Senate majority hopes hinging on a risky experiment in cross-party appeal.

Yes51¢

No49¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

$492K Vol▲ 0pts3mo