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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 25 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 3813 US elections 2684 President ✨ 757 Foreign politics 403 Republican ✨ 325 Future US Presidents 215 US Political Timelines 202 Iran ✨ 126 Leader Tenure Predictions 113 Political ✨ 81 Presidential Candidacy 72 Person of the Year Awards 12

10,793 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 25 of 417

Kalshi

Open

How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the Midterms?

5016¢

15 outcomes

$254K Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AOC be the first female US president?

‹ Prev1…2324252627…417Next ›

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ370 Vol▲ 0pts—

Polymarket

Open

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

$247K Vol▼ 1pts4d

Kalshi

Open

Minnesota Republican Governor nominee?

Mike Lindell53¢

8 outcomes

$390K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be the two major party nominees of the 2028 United States Presidential Election? (resolves 50% each)

The field is unusually fragmented for 26 months out, with no candidate above 16% and the top three combining for just 53%, reflecting a pre-primary phase where name recognition and institutional roles dominate over any clear ideological or coalition-building signal.

Other23¢

26 outcomes

Ɱ108K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Polymarket

Open

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Despite Ukraine's July 7 offer of an unconditional ceasefire and secret German-Russian talks in Baku, the odds have dropped sharply, reflecting the market's view that Russia's June 24 refusal to agree to a ceasefire for the sake of talks and the failure of the May US-brokered ceasefire outweigh any diplomatic signals.

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$804K Vol3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee report more than $35M in cash on hand at the end of Q3? — Above $35M

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

$2.6K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Polymarket

Open

Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026? — 50+

Yes3¢

No97¢

Yes ≈ 3% chance

$62.3K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Democrats win every US House election in 2026 in Colorado?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ1.5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the United States acquire any part of Greenland before Jan 1, 2027? — Before 2027

Despite renewed political rhetoric from Trump at the NATO summit in early July 2026, the market sees almost no chance of a US acquisition of Greenland within five months, treating the threats as performative rather than actionable.

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$498K Vol▼ 1pts5mo

Polymarket🔭 4 venues

Open

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

Trump's renewed demand for Greenland at the NATO summit has not shifted market odds, which remain heavily against acquisition before 2027 due to Denmark's firm opposition and the lack of any concrete negotiation process.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$35.1M Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Joe Biden outlive Donald Trump?

Yes34¢

No66¢

Yes ≈ 34% chance

Ɱ2.6K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Texas Governor winner?

Greg Abbott90¢

2 outcomes

$167K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by August 31?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

$6.2K Vol▲ 2pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be re-elected as President of Ukraine before 2028

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ3.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Kalshi

Open

MI-08 Republican nominee?

Amir Hassan96¢

3 outcomes

$8.9K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Republican Party56¢

9 outcomes

$3.3M Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Susan Collins win re-election to Maine's Senate seat in 2026?

Yes36¢

No64¢

Yes ≈ 36% chance

Ɱ5K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Bill Pulte leaves FHFA Director in before 2027?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

$50.2K Vol▼ 5pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$196K Vol▲ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will the Democratic party win more than 240 US house seats in the 2026 election?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ1.2K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Closest Governor race in 2026?

Iowa21¢

14 outcomes

$46.6K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

$152K Vol▼ 9pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will John Fetterman vote for Trump's nominee to succeed Pam Bondi?

Yes57¢

No43¢

Yes ≈ 57% chance

Ɱ305 Vol▲ 0pts6d