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Sources: Polymarket · Kalshi · Manifold · PredictIt · Hyperliquid · Myriad · Azuro · Limitless · Futuur · ForecastEx · InsightX · XO Market · Smarkets · SX Bet · Metaculus

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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 28 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 4129 US elections 3021 Foreign politics 521 Political Leader Tenure 383 Future US Presidents 252 US Political Timelines 211 Leader Tenure Predictions 126 US Political Future 116 Presidential Candidacy 80 US Political Milestones ✨ 35 Person of the Year Awards 17 Sports & Political Leadership 9

11,561 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 28 of 417

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump post on Truth Social between 2:00 AM and 2:59 AM ET this week? — 2-3 AM

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

$2.2K Vol▼ 1pts5d

Polymarket

Open

‹ Prev1…2627282930…417Next ›

Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory

Farage 60%+37¢

6 outcomes

$69.6K Vol▼ 1pts11mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Canada officially joins the United States before Trump's admin leaves power.

Yes1¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 1% chance

Ɱ41.1K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Who will become Prime Minister of India after next general election?

Narendra Modi51¢

9 outcomes

$31.5K Vol▲ 4pts3y

Polymarket

Open

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202791¢

30 outcomes

$2.8M Vol▲ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Democrats hold 235 or more seats in the House AND hold 51 or more seats in the Senate?

The market prices Democrats retaining both chambers at 40%, which is high relative to historical midterm penalties for the president's party, but the Senate map looks promising while the House math remains an uphill climb.

Yes40¢

No60¢

Yes ≈ 40% chance

$262K Vol▲ 2pts6mo

Polymarket

Open

Which party will win the Senate in 2026?

Republican Party56¢

9 outcomes

$3.3M Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?

The field is extremely concentrated at 100% for eight outcomes, reflecting a market that has already priced in many of Trump's second-term actions as near-certainties, but the recent headlines suggest a growing narrative of legal and institutional pushback that could challenge these odds.

Trump cancels Biden's AI executive order (EO 14110)100¢

251 outcomes

Ɱ1M Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

FL-20 Democratic nominee?

Debbie Wasserman Schultz71¢

7 outcomes

$62.6K Vol▲ 1pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Paraná Governor Election Winner

Sergio Moro82¢

18 outcomes

$28.7K Vol▲ 0pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Which party will win the 2026 South Carolina Senate race?

The race is overwhelmingly tilted toward the Republican frontrunner, but an internal GOP power struggle—highlighted by Politico—could fracture the party's unity and create an opening for Democrats, who currently hold only 14% odds.

Republican86¢

3 outcomes

Ɱ115K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Alaska Governor Election Winner

Tom Begich36¢

40 outcomes

$1.1M Vol▲ 2pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

James Fishback

Yes62¢

No38¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

$29.9K Vol▲ 6pts22d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Darline Graham run for and win Lindsey Graham's senate seat in the 2026 Senate Election?

Yes61¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 61% chance

Ɱ427 Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?

Yes63¢

No37¢

Yes ≈ 63% chance

$24.5K Vol▼ 7pts2mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump say "Epstein" before Aug 1, 2026?

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$8.5K Vol▼ 5pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Which US House districts in the Midwest will a Democrat win?

Michigan's 8th district (McDonald Rivet-D)86¢

19 outcomes

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Michigan Democratic Senate Primary: Oakland County Winner

Haley Stevens98¢

6 outcomes

$18.9K Vol▲ 0pts8d

Kalshi

Open

Will it be reported that at least one million Americans have received checks of at least $1000 directly attributable to tariff revenue? — Before August

The market is pricing a 0% chance of any such payments because no government program, legislative action, or credible reporting has surfaced that would distribute tariff revenue directly to millions of Americans, and the provided headlines contain no mention of tariff rebates or checks.

Yes0¢

No100¢

Yes ≈ 0% chance

$1M Vol▼ 0pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

Which Texas US House Districts will a Democrat win?

Texas 28th district74¢

12 outcomes

Ɱ31.7K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

No Return to Normal Traffic in 202644¢

7 outcomes

$140K Vol▲ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Trump invoke the Insurrection Act during his Presidency? — Before Jan 20, 2029

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

$181K Vol▼ 3pts2y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Democrats have 225 or more seats after the 2026 House Elections?

Yes52¢

No48¢

Yes ≈ 52% chance

Ɱ3.9K Vol▲ 1pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

How many Senate and House seats will Republicans have after the midterms?

50–52 and 193–20727¢

13 outcomes

$5.2K Vol▲ 5pts3mo