Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.
13,244 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 26 of 417
2 outcomes
The field is heavily concentrated on Biden (52%) due solely to age, but no recent health-related headlines explain his lead, while Trump (24%), Putin (16%), and Xi (9%) remain distant: the only recent notable death is Robert Mueller (AP News, Mar 21), who is not a candidate, so the odds reflect baseline actuarial priors, not new information.
4 outcomes
Despite a deepening financial scandal and record-low approval, Nigel Farage is attempting to reset his leadership by resigning his seat and re-running—a risky gambit that the market currently sees as more likely to keep him in power than end his tenure.
Yes ≈ 20% chance
The field is moderately concentrated, with Democratic sweep and Republican Senate/Democratic House outcomes dominating at 44% and 41% respectively, but a recent 1-point decline in the leading probability hints at subtle momentum shifts toward a split government scenario, driven by individual Senate race dynamics (Fox News, Jul 7; Kalshi News, Jul 10).
5 outcomes
43 outcomes
Despite being the incumbent, Shri Thanedar trails Donavan McKinney by 36 points, a margin that reflects recent press coverage framing Thanedar as potentially the next ousted Democratic incumbent (Detroit Free Press, Jul 18), suggesting the race is a referendum on Thanedar’s vulnerability rather than a traditional open seat.
32 outcomes
The field is highly concentrated on a late or post-2027 exit (Other at 52%), with a secondary cluster in 2026-2027, reflecting market belief that Zelenskyy will stay through the current war phase; the biggest recent shift is the surge of Other above 50%, triggered by Trump's licensing offer for Patriot missile production (Deseret News, Jul 8) which, despite expert delays (ABC News, Jul 8), signals prolonged US commitment and thus extended presidential tenure.
7 outcomes
2 outcomes
Despite intense political battles over Iran and internal GOP friction, the market sees virtually no chance of Trump leaving office early because no removal mechanism—impeachment, 25th Amendment, or resignation—has been seriously activated, and the historical precedent is nearly zero.
Yes ≈ 7% chance
3 outcomes
The field is effectively closed, with two candidates—Bridget Phillipson and Yvette Cooper—each at 100% probability, reflecting their confirmed appointments in Burnham's cabinet as reported in today's headlines (AP News, Jul 22). The single biggest recent shift is the move of these two from lower odds to 100% upon Burnham's official naming of his cabinet, as confirmed by multiple outlets.
2 outcomes
The market heavily discounts a leadership change despite a dramatic external shock (Khamenei's death in February), reflecting deep skepticism that the Islamic Republic's succession mechanisms or internal politics will produce a de facto change in Mojtaba Khamenei's position by year-end.
Yes ≈ 21% chance
Yes ≈ 19% chance