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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 32 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 4182 US elections 3083 Foreign politics 544 Political Leader Tenure 395 Future US Presidents 256 US Political Timelines 211 Leader Tenure Predictions 131 US Political Future 117 Presidential Candidacy 80 US Political Milestones ✨ 35 Person of the Year Awards 18 Sports & Political Leadership 9

11,697 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 32 of 417

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Elon Musk and Donald Trump publicly support different candidates in any 2026 election?

Yes72¢

No28¢

Yes ≈ 72% chance

Ɱ640 Vol▼ 5pts3mo

Kalshi

‹ Prev1…3031323334…417Next ›

Open

Make Iran Great Again

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

$15.2K Vol▲ 1pts5d

Polymarket

Open

Likud Party Primary Winner

Person B50¢

43 outcomes

$22K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

When will war in Ukraine deescalate to <100 people killed in a year?

202830¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

Will the number of U.S. states that formally adopt a binding state-level moratorium on data-center development be at least 3 in 2026? — At least 3

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

$8.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson79¢

36 outcomes

$3.3M Vol▼ 2pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Newsom's SB 9 suspension rolled back?

Yes38¢

No63¢

Yes ≈ 38% chance

Ɱ57 Vol▲ 0pts5d

Kalshi

Open

U.S. Virgin Islands Governor winner?

Stacey Plaskett66¢

7 outcomes

$62.7K Vol▲ 9pts1y

Polymarket

Open

CA-45 House Election Winner

Democratic Party87¢

8 outcomes

$15.3K Vol▲ 1pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

How many Democratic Representatives will New England elect in 2026?

2059¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ7.1K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Kalshi

Open

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? — Before Sep 1, 2026

Despite a June 2026 agreement between the US and Iran being widely reported as a deal, the market assigns only a 4% chance it qualifies as a 'new Iranian nuclear deal' by September 1, likely because the agreement focuses on ending the war rather than nuclear restrictions, or because it has already unraveled.

Yes4¢

No96¢

Yes ≈ 4% chance

$1.4M Vol▲ 0pts1mo

Polymarket

Open

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?

Ukraine's declared readiness for an unconditional ceasefire contrasts sharply with Russia's explicit refusal to halt fighting for talks, creating a stalemate that keeps odds low despite diplomatic signals.

Yes19¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

$804K Vol3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Trump outlive Biden?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ14.8K Vol▼ 0pts—

Kalshi

Open

LA-02 Democratic nominee?

Troy Carter13¢

2 outcomes

$15.7K Vol▲ 11pts1y

Polymarket

Open

GA-05 House Election Winner

Democratic Party95¢

8 outcomes

$40.2K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will be on the 2026 Time Person Of The Year Shortlist?

Pope Leo XIV86¢

39 outcomes

Ɱ9.5K Vol▲ 0pts4mo

Kalshi

Open

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be arrested before Jan 1, 2027? — Before Jan 1, 2027

Despite recent US political calls for Netanyahu's arrest, the odds remain at 8% Yes because the legal mechanisms to enforce such an arrest are virtually nonexistent, and the ICC's credibility has been further undermined by the dismissal of the prosecutor behind the warrant.

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$27.6K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

MI-07 Democratic Primary Winner

William Lawrence80¢

18 outcomes

$65.5K Vol▲ 6pts8d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Joe Biden die before Donald Trump?

Yes70¢

No30¢

Yes ≈ 70% chance

Ɱ48.3K Vol▼ 0pts13y

Kalshi

Open

Will James Fishback receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Senate primary? — At least 15%

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

$25.6K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

$94.4K Vol▼ 0pts1mo

Manifold· Play

Open

When, if at all, will JD Vance become president?

He will not become president at all (as of the 2032 election.)60¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ15.3K Vol▲ 0pts6y

Kalshi

Open

Nine War / Ninth War

Yes6¢

No94¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

$4.4K Vol▲ 2pts5d

Manifold· Play

Open

When will Mitch McConnell retire?

Later43¢

7 outcomes

Ɱ31.9K Vol▼ 1pts1y