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Politics prediction markets & live odds — page 39 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Politics prediction markets

Elections, policy, and geopolitics priced across every major prediction market — compared side by side with the cross-venue PredictPal Consensus.

🔭 Compare politics odds across venues →

All US governance 4292 US elections 3192 Foreign politics 606 Political Leader Tenure 401 Future US Presidents 260 US Political Timelines 214 Leader Tenure Predictions 138 US Political Future 120 Presidential Candidacy 82 US Political Milestones ✨ 35 Person of the Year Awards 18 Sports & Political Leadership 9

11,926 markets · browsing the top 10,008 · page 39 of 417

Polymarket

Open

Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?

Yes9¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

$255K Vol▼ 2pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

‹ Prev1…3738394041…417Next ›

DE-AL Republican nominee?

Earl Cooper98¢

4 outcomes

$10.2K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

How many House seats will flip in 2026? [linear, 0-100]

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ1.3K Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Polymarket

Open

How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

446¢

16 outcomes

$7.3M Vol▼ 4pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary margin of victory?

Francesca Hong, ≥15%44¢

12 outcomes

$22.8K Vol▼ 5pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will win the 2026 election for California's 14th Congressional District

Aisha Wahab93¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ4.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

CZ # posts July 28 - August 4, 2026?

20-3952¢

11 outcomes

$2.4K Vol▼ 29pts8d

Kalshi

Open

Howard Lutnick

The market sees Lutnick as likely to stay through 2026, but the real story is whether internal White House friction over trade and crypto policy, plus a potential shake-up after the midterms, could force him out before 2027.

Yes33¢

No67¢

Yes ≈ 33% chance

$353K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Polymarket

Open

Will Trump post "Pope" on Truth Social this week?

Yes28¢

No72¢

Yes ≈ 28% chance

$2.2K Vol▲ 5pts6d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will JD Vance be the 2028 Republican nominee for President?

Yes42¢

No58¢

Yes ≈ 42% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Will there be more than 70 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Jul 20, 2026 to Jul 26, 2026? — Above 70

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

$16.7K Vol▲ 2pts1d

Polymarket

Open

Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?

Yes10¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 10% chance

$58.2K Vol▲ 1pts2mo

Manifold· Play

Open

How many House seats do the Republicans flip in 2026?

>= 293¢

4 outcomes

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

What will Donald Trump say during Remarks at General Motors in Milford, Michigan? — Tariff

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

$944 Vol▲ 28pts15d

Polymarket

Open

Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?

Yes8¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

$42.7K Vol▼ 1pts4d

Manifold· Play

Open

Will any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?

Yes16¢

No84¢

Yes ≈ 16% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

Florida Senate winner?

Republican party86¢

2 outcomes

$133K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei53¢

64 outcomes

$372K Vol▲ 1pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

How many Democratic Representatives will OH elect in 2026?

324¢

7 outcomes

Ɱ1K Vol▲ 1pts5mo

Kalshi

Open

California Governor winner?

Xavier Becerra95¢

2 outcomes

$1.2M Vol▲ 0pts1y

Polymarket

Open

California Governor Election Winner

Xavier Becerra93¢

45 outcomes

$40.4M Vol▲ 0pts3mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Who will win the 2028 US presidential election?

The field is unusually diffuse for 26 months out, with the top three candidates holding just 47% of the probability and 47 candidates listed, reflecting a lack of clear front-runner consolidation. The single biggest recent shift is the Democratic Party's move to keep South Carolina as the first 2028 primary state (The Guardian, Jul 24), which boosts candidates with strong African American support like Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris and could reshape delegate math.

J.D. Vance18¢

47 outcomes

Ɱ73.4K Vol▲ 0pts2y

Kalshi

Open

Kentucky Senate winner?

Andy Barr94¢

2 outcomes

$88.6K Vol▲ 3pts1y

Polymarket

Open

GPT-6 released

With only six days until the market's July 31 deadline and neither GPT-6 nor GTA VI released, the near-50/50 odds reflect a coin flip on which—if either—will appear in time, despite OpenAI's rapid iteration with GPT-5.6 Sol.

Yes51¢

No50¢

Yes ≈ 51% chance

$689K Vol4d