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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 100 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2329 Tech Company Valuations 862 Big tech & chips 598 Space 437 Science 259 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Development 9 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 8 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

3,310 markets · page 100 of 138

Manifold· Play

Open

Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?

Autonomous AI math researcher71¢

3 outcomes

Ɱ109 Vol13y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will AI-enhanced video-editing software automatically slow-down frame rate of fast-scrolled videos by EOY 2027?

‹ Prev1…9899100101102…138Next ›

Yes55¢

No45¢

Yes ≈ 55% chance

Ɱ10 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will an AI be capable of achieving a perfect score on the Putnam exam before 2030?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ13.1K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will GPT-4 escape?

Yes5¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 5% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Dario Amodei write an essay on what powerful AI will look like, and/or when it will arrive, by October 2027?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ92 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will ai wipe out poodles by 2030?

Yes2¢

No98¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ4.2K Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Which country will be the first to create the first true AGI as defined by Manifold?

USA66¢

9 outcomes

Ɱ2K Vol14y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "How AI Is Learning to Think in Secret" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ373 Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Is scale unnecessary for intelligence (<10B param human-competitive STEM model before 2027)?

Yes18¢

No82¢

Yes ≈ 18% chance

Ɱ8.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be the highest Epoch Capabilities Index score in 2026?

170-17531¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ34.5K Vol5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Tesla's 2025 CEO Performance Award - Operational Milestones by 2036

1 million Optimus bots delivered69¢

14 outcomes

Ɱ122 Vol9y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will OpenAI change their name before 2030?

Yes24¢

No76¢

Yes ≈ 24% chance

Ɱ907 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

OpenAI offers customizable plans by EOY? [READ DESC]

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ852 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Mojo displace Python as the language of most AI papers on Arxiv by 2030

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ724 Vol▲ 0pts4y

Manifold· Play

Open

will any AI become a citizen of any internationally recognized country before 2030?

Yes23¢

No77¢

Yes ≈ 23% chance

Ɱ521 Vol▲ 0pts3y

Manifold· Play

Open

When will Etched.AI launch a transformer chip product?

Before 203080¢

3 outcomes

Ɱ2.2K Vol4y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will Xi Jinping publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?

Yes12¢

No88¢

Yes ≈ 12% chance

Ɱ2.7K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

Will "AI 2027: Responses" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ275 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will we be called the AI bubble ? 2028

Yes21¢

No79¢

Yes ≈ 21% chance

Ɱ7.3K Vol▲ 0pts1y

Manifold· Play

Open

[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027?

Yes15¢

No85¢

Yes ≈ 15% chance

Ɱ9.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

Will combined 2026 AI capex from {AWS, Azure, GCP, Meta, Oracle} exceed $300B?

Yes85¢

No15¢

Yes ≈ 85% chance

Ɱ135 Vol▲ 0pts7mo

Manifold· Play

Open

By 2032, will >=10% of adults report AI helped achieve deep personal fulfillment they couldn't find using trad. therapy?

Yes67¢

No33¢

Yes ≈ 67% chance

Ɱ249 Vol▲ 0pts5y

Manifold· Play

Open

OpenAI deploys ads in ChatGPT web or mobile app by end of 2026

Yes98¢

No2¢

Yes ≈ 98% chance

Ɱ1.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

Manifold· Play

Open

What will be true about the person who creates AGI?

He will resolves this market for being a CEO of the AGI company, not for being the well recognized AGI creator90¢

11 outcomes

Ɱ1.9K Vol5mo