AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
858 markets · page 13 of 36
Yes ≈ 48% chance
32 outcomes
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
Yes ≈ 6% chance
Yes ≈ 99% chance
Yes ≈ 24% chance
Yes ≈ 8% chance
Yes ≈ 12% chance
Yes ≈ 5% chance
The field is highly concentrated on the early 2030s, with the top three candidates (2034, 2033, 2032) summing to 260%, reflecting market confidence that a crewed lunar landing will occur in that window; the single biggest recent shift is the surge of 2034 to 89%, likely driven by the May 2026 Space Daily report that NASA is restructuring its Artemis program by cutting science missions and partnerships, which could push the landing timeline later.
11 outcomes
Yes ≈ 1% chance
Yes ≈ 95% chance
6 outcomes
Yes ≈ 36% chance
Yes ≈ 41% chance
Yes ≈ 20% chance
The field is moderately concentrated (top three sum 54%) but with 10 candidates above 5%, indicating a competitive race where recent high-profile hires like John Jumper (Startup Fortune, Jun 19) have likely boosted confidence in Anthropic's ability to attract top talent, making the front-runners' odds more credible yet still open to surprises.
12 outcomes
Yes ≈ 58% chance
Yes ≈ 13% chance