AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.
1,130 markets · page 14 of 48
Yes ≈ 16% chance
14 outcomes
Blue Origin's lander testing is ahead of SpaceX's, but the recent explosion of its New Glenn rocket (May 30) threatens its launch timeline, making the 54% odds a fragile bet on a single vehicle's recovery.
Yes ≈ 63% chance
10 outcomes
Yes ≈ 18% chance
6 outcomes
The market at 43% Yes reflects a moderate baseline risk of Ebola importation or re-emergence in South Sudan, but the complete absence of any recent Ebola-related headlines or health alerts suggests the odds are driven by general disease surveillance concerns rather than a specific current threat.
Yes ≈ 34% chance
Yes ≈ 20% chance
The market strongly favors a Mars walk over a dark matter Nobel, but the complete absence of relevant headlines in the provided data suggests the odds are driven by long-standing technological expectations, not recent events.
Yes ≈ 68% chance
Yes ≈ 16% chance
6 outcomes
The odds remain low at 29% despite an active Ebola outbreak in neighboring DRC and Uganda that has already crossed borders, because no cases have been reported in Burundi and containment efforts are intensifying, but the risk of spillover remains significant given the outbreak's acceleration and the WHO's PHEIC declaration.
Yes ≈ 19% chance
4 outcomes
The market sees a 44% chance of the New York Times winning its copyright case against OpenAI, but the recent headlines are all sports coverage, offering no new legal developments—the odds are likely stale or driven by broader tech-legal sentiment rather than case-specific news.
Yes ≈ 44% chance
9 outcomes
Yes ≈ 56% chance
5 outcomes
Yes ≈ 76% chance
3 outcomes
Yes ≈ 93% chance
4 outcomes
Yes ≈ 1% chance
7 outcomes
The market is overwhelmingly confident that the RTX 5090 compute per hour will stay below $0.53 in the next five days, likely reflecting stable or declining GPU compute pricing despite the card's high retail price.
Yes ≈ 7% chance