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Tech prediction markets & live odds — page 174 | PredictPal · PredictPal

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Tech prediction markets

AI milestones, product launches, and company outcomes priced by prediction markets.

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All AI 2519 Tech Company Valuations 945 Big tech & chips 641 Space 500 Science 302 Through 40 Elevator 15 Software Engineering Trends 14 Space Tech & Exploration ✨ 9 Space Development 9 Software Industry Trends 5 Streamer 2

4,721 markets · page 174 of 197

Manifold· Play

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Will a Nintendo Switch 2 budget model be released before 2029?

Yes75¢

No25¢

Yes ≈ 75% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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What will be the best GSOBench score by Dec 31, 2026?

70-80%36¢

8 outcomes

Ɱ36.4K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will OpenAI, Anthropic or Google cut API access to their text models, in 2026?

Yes7¢

No93¢

Yes ≈ 7% chance

Ɱ7.1K Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Will ANY of the three major “AI 2027” predictions come true?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ8K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Anthropic’s GAAP Net Income be Higher in fiscal year 2026 than fiscal year 2025?

Yes73¢

No27¢

Yes ≈ 73% chance

Ɱ86 Vol▲ 0pts5mo

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Does an AI disaster kill at least 10,000,000 people before 2029?

Yes9¢

No91¢

Yes ≈ 9% chance

Ɱ1.6K Vol▲ 0pts2y

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Will Sam Altman be the CEO of Microsoft before 2035?

Yes8¢

No92¢

Yes ≈ 8% chance

Ɱ2K Vol▲ 0pts8y

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In 2028, will at least 35m (1/10) Americans be talking at least monthly to an AI therapist or coach?

Yes25¢

No75¢

Yes ≈ 25% chance

Ɱ976 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will "A country of alien idiots in a datacenter: AI..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes13¢

No87¢

Yes ≈ 13% chance

Ɱ50 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Will a human will set foot on Mars by the end of 2047?

Yes74¢

No26¢

Yes ≈ 74% chance

Ɱ2.8K Vol▲ 0pts—

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When will VideoGameBench be mostly saturated?

By the end of 202968¢

6 outcomes

Ɱ4.4K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2028?

Yes76¢

No24¢

Yes ≈ 76% chance

Ɱ4.1K Vol▲ 0pts1y

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FBI most wanted has someone listed for a crime committed in space through 2034

Yes6¢

No95¢

Yes ≈ 6% chance

Ɱ596 Vol▲ 0pts8y

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Will the first Starships to Mars will launch in 2 years when the next Earth-Mars transfer window opens?

Yes2¢

No99¢

Yes ≈ 2% chance

Ɱ4.4K Vol▲ 0pts11mo

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Will an AI system similar to Auto-GPT make a successful attempt to kill a human by 2030?

Yes27¢

No73¢

Yes ≈ 27% chance

Ɱ1.9K Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will "Frontier AI Models Still Fail at Basic Physic..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ6 Vol▲ 0pts6mo

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Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033

Yes62¢

No39¢

Yes ≈ 62% chance

Ɱ7.4K Vol▲ 0pts7y

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Multi year: Will an AI be able to generate a full high quality movie to a prompt?

Second half 202841¢

12 outcomes

Ɱ29.8K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will the Apple Watch be able to properly monitor blood pressure by 2030?

Yes65¢

No35¢

Yes ≈ 65% chance

Ɱ387 Vol▲ 0pts4y

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Will "An analysis of AI-generated content at the Me..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Yes19¢

No81¢

Yes ≈ 19% chance

Ɱ150 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will it be conclusively shown (through some way) that slowing the aging rate of AI researchers down (eg interventions decreasing DNAm age) will increase their net output/productivity by 2029?

Yes14¢

No86¢

Yes ≈ 14% chance

Ɱ939 Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will there be an AI that diagnoses patients better than an average doctor prior to 2030?

Yes81¢

No19¢

Yes ≈ 81% chance

Ɱ2.3K Vol▲ 0pts3y

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Will LLM training costs fall 100x by 2028?

Yes90¢

No10¢

Yes ≈ 90% chance

Ɱ213 Vol▲ 0pts1y

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Will the first AGI be an LLM that emulates Nobel-prize-worthy scientific research?

Yes26¢

No74¢

Yes ≈ 26% chance

Ɱ123 Vol▲ 0pts5mo